First off- Before the election,before the last BCUC decision many things happened, the California senate ruled that big run of river power from BC isn`t green,thus it won`t justify California paying a big premium for this power when cheaper options are available.(read about the California senate rejecting BC run of river power as being green here) http://www.vancouversun.com/Technology/Califotnia+rejects+green+power+claims/1453593/story.html
The big one is the economic collapse, power prices and demand has fallen off a cliff,especially industrial power, the closing of the Eurocan for example,that`s a huge slug of power that won`t be needed.
But here is where it gets tricky,Campbell had these grandiose plans of being a electrical export giant, he of course doesn`t care about fish or bears or eco systems, but, this plan was hatched when markets were booming,housing was booming,well the world has changed, in many ways,for one,the world is broke,the consumer is broke,provinces,states,countries are broke and,technology is zooming,energy efficient appliances,LED lights,energy saving bulbs,heat pumps,plus pressure on people`s electrical bill`s has caused a pullback of electrical power.
So here is Campbell`s problem, he wooed private power, he took large amounts of money from private power in the form of party donations, when this plan was hatched the sky`s the limit, but here we are in 2009,....A 4 billion dollar deficit,more massive deficits coming, hydro demand falling not rising,no surpluses in the budget to absorb massive private power losses. Also,people are fighting back,people are armed with the California senate ruling,no one will end up buying this power as green power by mistake,anyone buying this power will know it`s not green or fish friendly. (read about the fight in the Kooteneys here) http://www.theprovince.com/Technology/Five+proposal+West+Kooteney+riles+residents/1900603/story.html
So what does Campbell do, his hand caught in the cookie jar and he can`t deliver to private power, well..You know he has to put on a good show, he has to give the illusion that he is fighting for private power but in reality it`s nothing but a smoke show. Lets examine Blair Leckstrom`s last directive to BC Hydro and the BCUC.
First off,the province has totally flip-flopped on burrard thermal,pre-election the government said it was going to dismantle burrard thermal,now the province states the Burrard thermal we be maintained for emergency back-up power...A complete 180 degree turn.
Secondly, Leckstrom is asking BC Hydro to re-submit a private power call to the BCUC this spring,thus the decision won`t be made until summer after another long BCUC review,and...The BCUC`s decision will be based on power demands this winter, if as I predict,power demand is low and burrard thermal doesn`t get turned on at all,it will be almost impossible for BC Hydro,government or anyone to justify buying expensive unreliable power that will be wasted,excess power we can`t sell,or if we do it will be at a loss.
So that`s how I read this latest posturing from the Campbell GANG....And the hamming and egging continued from Gordon Campbell today who attended and spoke at a private power/energy review policy meeting today, I will give the link,but, a few items from the story stick out like a sore thumb to me.
Firstly, there is nothing definate in anything Gordon Campbell states, just talk about clarity,and reviews, nothing like we WILL,or this WILL happen, just more posturing,you see folks,Gordon Campbell has to put on a good show, anyways, there was one statement made that I would like to put into context.
"The intention is to make B.C. an international leader in green power developments-Both for this province and for the export to markets including-The United States and Alberta"
Well,lets look at Alberta, we buy power from Alberta because....Drum roll please.......It`s Dirt Cheap Power! How many Alberta companies are going to pay a massive premium for BC power? HA Ha, and the Alberta people and especially the Alberta government aren`t exactly environmentalists. So basically,the idea of Alberta buying our power at those prices(The price being promised by the province to private power) is nothing but a pipe dream!
Now,the export market to the USA, demand won`t materialize this winter,all those empty homes, power shut off,people hunkering down trying to save money,and the big one, the massive falloff in industrial demand.(Read about what went on at that energy review meeting here,remember to read between the lines) http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Premier+Campbell+announces+sweeping+energy+policy+review/2173820/story.html
Let me be clear,this private power is going to hurt BC, it`s going to hurt wildlife,fish,bears, and will be a big financial hit,and, I predict that the BCUC will split the difference on the private power call, some projects will go through but no where near what was planned, this is nothing but the first stepdown of a expensive private power experiment.
The bottom line and I hope I`m right, private power is being squeezed out slowly,although we may end up with 3000 more GW of expensive unreliable private power.
The Straight Goods
Cheers-Eyes Wide Open