Wednesday, April 25, 2012

The Art of Distraction, Volume III(updated at bottom of post)

As you regular readers know I am fascinated with polls and polling in general, personally speaking, to me it appears polling is not a science but a form of art..

Before the 2005 and 2009 B.C. general election pollsters, Ipsos Reid...Mustel..

Right up until the last few days before those elections the pollsters mentioned above gave the BC Liberal party double digit leads, yet I knew, party officials knew the real numbers, the Liberals won those two elections by a mere few points, and yes polling does affect those weak minded lazy voters, for many want to have voted for the winning side.

Alberta`s election yesterday was a prime example, excuse makers are busy trying to salvage their credibility, many low-hanging fruit pickers are suggesting it was bigoted comments that turned the freight-train around, they`re wrong, yes bigoted comments can affect an election but not a 20% percentage point swing in 1 week, I find it particularly amusing that those who claim these racial comments made the difference, and make that claim the day-after the election, those interpretors expect Monday morning quarterbacking or in this case Tuesday morning quarterbacking to be believable,..

Because if we were to believe these bloated pundits as Gospel truth speakers, the racist comments were made last week, how can one predict a Wildrose landslide in lieu of those comments uttered the weeks before then stand before you and blame their prediction fault on the same lame comments, it contradicts logic, these experts should have said, after the uttering`s were spoken last week something to the effect.. 

Game over for the Wildrose over bigoted verbiage

But they didn`t, these bloated predictors stuck to their crystal ball right up and through the election, now as for me, been too busy to pay much attention to the province of Jurassic park, however I tuned into Election`s Alberta web-site, looked at the first ballot boxes with voting numbers of 100 to 200 vote range and one glance I returned to The Straight Goods and posted that the election was over..

I`m convinced that big-oil assisted in skewing both polls and pollsters in an attempt of influence peddling.

One only needs to look at polling Enbridge commissioned here in Beautiful Columbia..They present polls suggesting a majority are in favour of Gateway pipeline when we know that at least 75% to 80% are opposed, clearly results are being purchased and pollsters are the sales-people....

In fact during the 2009 election in Delta, the Delta times online paper had a poll, the question was..Who do you support, Wally Oppal or Vicki Huntington...A couple of  days later they ran an article complaining about political  FORCES JAMMING THE POLL, THEY NORMALLY WOULD GET VOTES IN THE HUNDREDS FOR ANY GIVEN QUESTION.

On that particular poll they got something like 7000 votes, apparently PAB out of the Government bunker were clearing cookies and making multiple votes on multiple computers..

Even today, I rose early as chores beckoned, turned on cknw and blathering Billy was on, he mentioned a poll on NW`s website, the question was, who do you support..BC Liberals..NDP..BC Cons...I went there and cast a vote, after voting(8:00 am) the percentages came up and NDP was at 47%, Libs at 30%..Cons at 23%..Very similar to the recent by-elections...After choring all-day on boat maintenance, about 6:00 pm, dear Mom called me for our usual early evening chat, she mentioned the NW poll and said the numbers were alarming, with phone next to computer I clicked their site and now..After PAB had awoken, after this poll was advertised all day the numbers went like this...(11:40 PM)

CKNW's Question of the Day

How would you vote if a provincial election were held today?

BC Conservative
BC Liberal

If those numbers were true Christy Cookie Clearing Clark should be calling a Red Snap(per) election..

But the numbers aren`t true, also, PAB is smart enough not to over-do-it..They could easily have pushed Liberal numbers to 70%--80%..But then numbers like that would be far too unbelievable..

Anyway, Bernard Schulmaan.....Schulmaan does election predicting, he dredges up historic polling data as his guide(polling data from the 50`s..60`s..70`s..80`s and 90`s, historic polling data is garbage, no longer relevant, , the reason is connectivity of the internet, online news, voice to voice, hyper link to hyper link, no longer are the masses like sheep..Harper`s voters are dying at about 800 per day whereas Big Orange Star party is growing at about the same rate, it`s a new game, even phone polling, who has a land-line?..Silver-haired ghosts, youthful voters have cellular mobile devices..

As for El Bloatto`s predictions, he`s batting 000%...Vancouver civic..Strike 1...BC by-elections..Strike II....Alberta General election..Strike III.....III strikes and your outta here!!!.

MLAs know the real poll numbers, wise ones can feel it in the air, pick-up vibes through conversations, what are people talking about and since 2009(1 month after our general election)..That talk has been of revenge.

Barring all ndp members getting arrested on murder charges both the Federal Tories and BC Liberal Tories are toast, nothing can change that reality and no matter how loud the likes of El Bloatto and Hocstein scream the sky is falling...

The Big Orange Star will be shining...

(Updated here....Mr. Mario Canseco corrected my error, his polling outfit was indeed very accurate on the 2009 BC general election, you can read the short exchange on the comment thread)

The Straight Goods

Cheers Eyes Wide Open


Anonymous said...

I don't like polls, I despise the "party" phone calls. I've taken to playing the poll game and participating, but now I vote opposite to what I mean. You can't rely on the polls as I think lots have taken to doing this.
I've also seen the "stacked up" votes when you know full well it's not for real.
My vote is none of their business.

Anonymous said...

I was in disbelief. Hochstein was on the news saying, he never relies on the polls. He seemed quite confident Christy could very well win the election. He said, everything could change in a heartbeat. I wonder if that means, he will pour money over to Christy, as he did to Campbell, in the fight BC HST? He said he had three trillion dollars, to fight the BC people. The three trillion, wasn't exactly Hochsteins to spend. Wonder who's money he will use this time?

Anonymous said...

Harpers voters are dying at 8000 per day. That is actually huge numbers! Demographics will kill the "right". Reminds me of the end of the movie "War of the Worlds". The conservative party dying of natural causes.

Anonymous said...

Flying Phil Hochstein is a parasite.

kootcoot said...

Someone ought to somehow genetically combine Hochstein and Kerkoff and raise hundreds of leaky condo builders from the results and send them to China.

Apple yesterday announced over 11 billion profits last quarter, making them still the most profitable corp in the universe. I would think they could pay those who make their crap a bit better and still succeed. I WILL NEVER PURCHASE ANY MAC PRODUCT!
They make Bill Gates look good.....

Mario Canseco said...

Grant: Just a quick observation. Angus Reid Public Opinion was not operating as a company in 2005, so we did not conduct any surveys on that year's provincial election. In 2009, we never had the BC Liberals ahead by ten points. In fact, we showed a tight race from the start of the campaign, and that's what materialized on election day.

Grant G said...

My mistake Mario, thanks for clearing that up...

And on a personal note..Your polling outfit is still the best, much better than the rest..

It always amazed me how Mustel and Ipsos always show way more support for the BC Liberals than Angus Reid..

I don`t suppose the fact that Joan Mcintyre(BC Liberal MLA on the North Shore) was at one time a principle owner of Mustel(insert sarcasm here).

By the way Mario..

You seemed to have progressed beyond polling expert to political media pundit, including giving advice to affected parties.

Say hello to Billy Good for me next time you see him..

I`ll make the correction


Mario Canseco said...

Thank you for your kind words, Grant. It has been a rollercoaster ride here in BC for the past three years, and I have a feeling it is going to get even weirder in the next few months.

Neil F. said...


Regarding CKNW's 'polls'... I remember an occasion many years ago when Gary Bannerman was hosting in the morning, and it was one or two days before a provincial election- 1991, I believe. For ninety minutes he had people phone in and just state who they were voting for. Didn't make for a great listen, but it was very illustrative of how 'NW's audience does not reflect the greater BC political mindset.

Something like 19% of callers identified as NDP. A day or two later, in the real world, some 40% of BC voters elected Mike Harcourt premier.

'NW's audience is old, male, white, and reactionary. Despite what Billy might maintain.

Grant G said...

My error, 8000 was a typo, meant 800 to 1000 per day..

But as a country we DO have an old population, that death count per-day number is rising(Boomers are coming fast)...Especially in B.C...

Dirty germ infected hospitals are indeed killing hundreds and hundreds of seniors needlessly.

BC by-elections...BC Cons and BC Liberals had mostly grey-haired old people at their sad defeatist receptions..

Whereas Big Orange Star party(NDP) at its celebratory receptions were full of today`s youth..Young, energetic life-infusing dedicated voters...NDP is a party of tomorrow`s leaders, tomorrow`s voices..

Harper`s demographic voters, and Cummins, and Cluck Cluck Liberals are ancient long-in the-tooth partisans..They, that demographic is dropping like flys.

Unless Harper rigs elections, suppresses voters he can`t win again..

Conservatism is dead in Canada.

Good Day