LNG in British Columbia, New Timelines, FIDs Coming in 2025-2027
Written by Grant G
Where to even begin.....Let's start with run-up to election 2013...
Christy Clark lagging and sagging in the polls created BC's biggest ever fraudulent election gambit..
The Windfall of LNG...Clark claimed LNG would wipe out BC's debt, eliminate BC's sales tax, pay for new schools and hospitals, pay off crown debt, eliminate tolls, money for First Nations and northern communities and a whopping $100 billion dollar prosperity fund...Christy also claimed LNG would create over 100,000 jobs...A $trillion dollars in economic activity.....
She won the election..
I wrote extensively on the fraudulent LNG advertised job numbers, warned of impending LNG glut, wrote how Japan was weaning itself off LNG and restarting their nuclear grid...I wrote about big energy and tax evasion, ..wrote about countries never getting a return for writing off deliberately overblown terminal builds...I also wrote about the economics of LNG and how BC would never receive even 1/1000th of what was promised...
Our domestic media published hundreds of press release based articles promoting Christy Clark's LNG delusion...meanwhile I steadfastly reported the truth, the ugly truth of LNG...I debunked BC Liberal math, job numbers, revenue potential, I tore the subject from ear to ear....and after 5 years of Gordon Wilson, 5 years of the BC LNGA, 5 years of Post media trumpeting the dead horse known as LNG..
After 5 years of BC Liberals squandering $billions on LNG promotion we came back to the raw truth, we come back to.....
The Straight Goods
In August, 2015 I published a Straight Goods' special on LNG.....
British Columbia LNG Industry, The Last Gas(P)....A Straight Goods Special
At that time in B.C. history...Christy Clark's LNG delusion was over...our domestic media continued to publish government and industry spindoctor articles on LNG, on how it was gonna happen, how it was Ottawa's fault the industry hadn't taken off, you know, red tape and regulatory delays...Yet the real truth was opposite..
Shell Canada was granted a 40 export license, an environmental certificate.....They walked away because of pure economics..
AltaGas was granted all the permits...they found no buyers of the gas at a price they could profit from, the bankers said no...
Woodfibre LNG has been granted all the required permits, they too have found no gas buyers...
In fact the NEB has granted over a dozen 25 to 40 year export licenses to the pretenders, granted permits to dead horses and bankrupt entities, to companies without a pot to piss in..
Yet the narrative from our domestic media and from industry spindoctors is that the federal Government was holding everything up...Michael Smyth even wrote that Petronas was the first project to be approved and how it was a big win for Christy Clark....
Was Michael Smyth blind, not paying attention or too busy polishing Christy Clark's boots...
In fact Michael Smyth was worse than being wrong about Petronas being the first approved project...He went on to literally steal what I revealed in this post...
I revealed, after deciphering what Rich Coleman actually said in interview with BIV magazine(Business in Vancouver)...Rich Coleman told BIV he was prepared to slash the provincial take from LNG and rewrite a rammed through by legislation PDA(Project Development Agreement)
My story went viral, the BC NDP picked up and so did Michael Smyth....sigh..
Never the less, Christy Clark's phone was burning, the heat was on, was she going to slash BC's share in a new PDA, especially after the second Petronas PDA was such a generational sellout...Christy Clark contradicted what Rich Coleman said....here it is.
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He said it is “quite likely” that he would meet in October with the president of Petronas in Malaysia and the presidents of the four minority partners to “restart our discussions in and around our project development agreement.”
“We really need to figure out the numbers,” he said. “The numbers have really got to be tightened down. Because the price of gas in Asia right now is so cheap, because of the price of oil. Just about nobody is globally competitive on a long-term contract they signed before the market crash.
“ I know the number they have to get to in order to make it financially viable, I think they’re about 50 cents to a dollar away from that, but it’s a lot better than it was six months ago.”
Here is a little from that Michael Smyth article....pay special attention to the part where Christy Clark contradicts what Rich Coleman said..
____________
So I asked Clark if she would guarantee that she won’t slash taxes or regularity requirements on her pet political project just to ensure it goes ahead.
“We have signed the agreement,” Clark said. “It is set. It is done and dusted.”
Now that is a clip-and-save quote if there ever was one because you can bet the companies behind the project will be pressuring the government to cut its taxes, royalties and regulations.
In fact, B.C. Natural Gas Minister Rich Coleman suggested recently that the government might reopen the project development agreement with the proponents.
That’s the agreement that spells out the project’s already rock-bottom-low, tax-and-royalty rates that the government negotiated last year.
Coleman was recently quoted in a Business in Vancouver magazine article as saying he would “quite likely” meet with the project’s backers to “restart our discussions in and around our project development agreement.”
Why would Coleman reopen a deal that critics had already said was too sweet for the companies?
“Because the price of gas in Asia right now is so cheap,” he said. “The numbers have really got to be tightened down.”
Message to Rich and Christy: maybe you two should get together and figure out among yourselves whether this deal is “done and dusted” or not!
Getting this project would be great for B.C., but that doesn’t mean the government should be played for suckers just to deliver on a Liberal election promise.
“I shudder to think how low they would go just to get something in the ground,” said NDP Leader John Horgan.
Whether the Clark government does a taxation limbo dance just to deliver at least one LNG project remains to be seen.
This post is just getting started, go pour a coffee, or whiskey....We is about to dissect this dead LNG horse..
So, ...Justin Trudeau disappoints everyone and betrays his election promise, he approves a carbon bomb LNG terminal to be located on a fragile Skeena river salmon estuary...100 of scientists are furious that Trudeau approved a project based on industry doctored reports, but I digress...
Christy Clark was grinning like the cat who ate the canary, along with Trudeau's lacklustre puppet ministers....The headlines raged, Petronas project approved, the LNG party was starting, they were celebrating like Greeks in Dawson Creek......ahh, but beware the Trojan horse and Greek's bearing gifts...
Before the ink was dry on the BC Liberal Government press releases a story was breaking from the giant News Conglomerate Reuters....Headline was..
Petronas was shopping their equity share in PNW LNG..In other words Petronas wants out, the main partner, the lead horse on the project Justin Trudeau just approved was wanting out...thus making Christy Clark and Justin Trudeau look like idiots(they are idiots)...
Meanwhile....A day before Trudeau gave the approval for Petronas I spent 2 hours on Blogtalk Radio laying out the real British Columbia LNG story with my friend Canadian Glen....
Then the next day Trudeau approved the project....could it be, was I wrong, ...like I said,, the ink wasn't dry on Trudeau's federal approval press release when Reuters reported Petronas' intention of selling their lead stake in the project..
So, on September 30th Reuters reported this....
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Malaysian state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd is considering selling its majority stake in a $27 billion Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, three people familiar with the matter said this week.
Petronas, as the company is known, said in a statement on Saturday that it "categorically denied" the Reuters report on Friday that the company is considering the stake sale.
"Petronas reiterates that, together with the project partners, it will study the conditions that come with the approval and conduct a total review of the project prior to making a decision on the next steps forward," the company said in a statement on Saturday......
The sources said Petronas has been considering a sale for months, after it became apparent that a Canadian approval was possible, but had yet to take a final decision. Other options are also being considered, including putting it on ice.
"They are going to be looking at gas prices, costs and returns before they make the final decision," said one of the sources. "It is a very tough call."
The Canadian project is Petronas' biggest foreign investment and seen as a sign of Malaysia's global energy ambitions. An exit would underscore the financial constraints at the state-run firm and also the soft outlook for LNG prices.
So, Trudeau approves Petronas...the next day Reuters reports that Petronas is shopping their stake(thus indicating that they ain't going forward)...
Panic sets in with Christy Clark and Rich Coleman...What happened next was a manufactured press release from BC Liberal muckraker and now BC Liberal Government go-between with Petronas, his name is Spencer Sproule...
My friend Ross K ....he posted an article and...with his permission....Ross K and I tore the fake BC Liberal manufactured press release story to shreds..
Please see Updates at bottom of post and a most interesting reader-driven discussion in the comment thread
_______
Apparently, there will be no sale of the non-existent Sparkle Pony factory.
At least, it would appear, not before May of 2017: Malaysian state-owned oil firm Petronas says it's not considering selling its stake in a proposed multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas export terminal in B.C.
The company issued a statement yesterday (Friday Sept 30, 2016) saying it "categorically denies" allegations made in a news report that selling its stake in the Pacific NorthWest LNG project was up for consideration...
What's this apparent turnabout all about this time Alfie?
_______ Lede, above, from a CP report published on MoCo.ca Update, Saturday afternoon:Grant G of the SGoods and I are having a little trouble finding Petronas' own, actual 'categorical denial' of sale consideration (see comments)...Has anybody seen it/got it (i.e. separate from 'news' reports saying that it has made said statement)? Updatier, Sunday morning: I heard from Martin MacMahon of CKWX on the Twittmachine who said that the NatGas Ministry of prov. gov't gave him the heads-up that Petronas was denying intentions to sell PNWLNG before a media release from Petronas. The latter was described in a follow-up story by WX's Renee Bernard...Last night I asked Mr. MacMahon a follow-up about whether he actually asked Petronas for a comment before he ran his story. I also asked Ms. Bernard if she actually saw a statement from Petronas and if it was the same one being trumpeted on the Twitmachine by a PNWLG PRish person with close ties to the BCL Party. Neither Mr. MacMahon nor Ms. Bernard has gotten back to me as of 8:00am Sunday...You can read all about this in the comments...I'll have a follow-up post later. Updatiest, Sunday Dinnertime...Have day job work week prep to attend to...Will try to follow-up soon.
OK...Here is the last OFFICIAL press release statement from Petronas..
__________
28/9/2016
PRESS STATEMENT ON CONDITIONAL APPROVAL BY THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA FOR THE PNW LNG PROJECT
PETRONAS is pleased that the Government of Canada has given a conditional approval for the proposed Pacific NorthWest LNG project.
On behalf of the partners of the proposed project, PETRONAS would like to thank the Government of Canada, the Canadian Environment Assessment Agency, area First Nations, local residents and all other relevant stakeholders for their constructive participation in the process of reaching this approval.
PETRONAS and its partners will study the conditions imposed by the Canadian authorities and conduct a total review of the proposed project prior to deciding on the next steps forward.
Malaysian state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd, or Petronas, said it "categorically denied" a Reuters report that it was considering selling its majority stake in a $27 billion Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
Petronas is weighing several options for the project that was approved earlier this week by Canada, but had yet to take a final decision, Reuters reported on Friday citing three people familiar with the matter. Other options are also being considered, including putting the project on ice.
"Petronas reiterates that, together with the project partners, it will study the conditions that come with the approval and conduct a total review of the project prior to making a decision on the next steps forward," the company said in a statement on Saturday.
But but but...I can't find that phrase in any statement from Petronas..Petronas keeps referring media back to the September 28th press release(the one about reviewing the project and conditions with partners..
On cknw yesterday(Sept/30th), during their newscast...CKNW reported and aired Rich Coleman saying.. Paraphrasing here..:I called Petronas and they "categorically denied" they were considering selling" then Coleman referred to the Sept28th press release about reviewing the project and conditions...
In other words...Show me the whole Petronas statement denying they are considering selling...
However...Petronas and partners might be interested in what Coleman is prepared to do/giveaway in a new rejiggered PDA...
Lastly...Does Rich Coleman really think that a ginormous energy company would keep him privy to their financial moves?..Does the B.C. media believe Petronas would give Coleman the straight goods?
Big media is lazy, and bought..
I don't see the statement denying anything..
And..Michael Smyth's last article..His research is lacking, the information he writes for his readers is inaccurate, false, a lie?
Michael Smyth wrote...
"but there's no guarantee the proposed Pacific Northwest LNG project near Prince Rupert-the first to be approved-will actually get built" snip
Michael Smyth is wrong..CAPP..LNG spindoctors..BC's media...They have been running a bogus narrative, they have been reporting that BC's and the BC Liberal's LNG industry is being held up by regulatory delays and red tape...
Wrong..Shell Canada had 40 year export permit, an environmental certificate and First Nation deal..so did AltaGas, ..and so does Woodfibre...
Shell deferred, Altagas bailed and Woodfibre has no buyers...Chevron in Kitimat, they too would have gotten all the permits...Chevron bailed early...
Petronas is not the first approved..the 4th to be approved..
Lastly...Petronas won't go forward unless one of two things happen...#1-They find Asian buyers willing to lock in for LNg buys for decades at a price of $14 and up...
#2- British Columbia slashes its cut to nothing in a new PDA...
on the last point...Coleman may well do it...and if LNG price does zoom back up in the future..
British Columbia would be locked into a share of nothing, a percentage of zippo..
Mr. K....The author of the tweet has not provided a link..
That tweet(er) you linked to is...
Spencer Sproule...Who is Spencer Sproule?
Are you ready?
From Vaughn Palmer(December 4th/2014)..See if you can spot the cryptic clue
"Petronas and its partners in the Pacific Northwest LNG project continue to review the economic viability of the project which, in time of declining oil prices, presents challenges," said the release issued over the name of Spencer Sproule, the former B.C. Liberal staffer now employed as senior adviser for corporate affairs on the project.
Hmm..another press release issued over the name of Spencer Sproule, the former B.C. Liberal staffer...
If I was betting man Ross...I'd say that Vaughn Palmer went in search of an official press release confirming something that the BC Government said of Petronas was true....
And all he could find was some words over Spencer Sproule's name, the former BC Liberal staffer..
By the way..Spencer is still a BC Liberal staffer.
We are all doing what they expect, being distracted from the real issues ! What does it matter what Petronas said or didn't say???
The issue is that this is ass backwards. There is a natural flow to this that is being ignored big time.
There was two ways for this to play out neither requiring more time as though time was of the essence as we were led to believe.
a] the government could have presented Petronas with the conditions and stated they would approve project IF petronas met all conditions. This would have left the power in the hands of our government where it should be!
b] The government, as it did, conditionally giving approval if Petronas met conditions afterwards. This giving the power to Petronas where now we are being held hostage to these silly games.
All this aside from the fact they are all playing with traditional native lands that by supreme ruling requires consent.
I agree with the power shift driven by the 'approval'.
Of course the Clarklandian wizardry wanted to use it purely to bamboozle the local rubes, but the bigger story is that it put Petronas in the driver's seat in more ways than one.
So...
What Grant and I really wondering is the following:
Is this 'categorical denial' stuff purely the invention of the local wizards that has been designed to protect their rube bamboozlement play?
CBC: "...Earlier, Reuters issued a report, citing three unnamed sources, that Petroliam Nasional, or Petronas, was weighing options for the project as its finances have been squeezed after crude oil prices have collapsed by more than 50 per cent since mid-2014. LNG prices for delivery into the main markets in northeast Asia have slumped more than 70 per cent over nearly the same time period."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/petronas-lng-project-1.3785389
Sproule tried same message on Twitter to David Schreck. I asked whether he had anything on Petronas letterhead and what source he’d copied message from.
David Schreck asked him, “Didn't see source on what you Tweeted. How high up the chain of command at Petronas & why not on their site!”
He didn’t respond to me, but to Schreck he said, “- statement sent to any media that requested it. Issued by PETRONAS Media Relations.”
So rather than simply put a press release on their site, Petronas is responding individually to media outlets. Really??
There was a Chinese petroleum analyst/adviser based in Calgary speaking with terry Mewleski yesterday on Power and Politics CBC. What he said I found rather interesting as did Mr.Mewlwski.
Basically the message was that there is no chance for Petronas to sell given the world price on natural gas now or in the foreseeable future. So even if they wished to sell it would be virtually impossible.
The situation is that they only have the option to put the project on ice or look for another way to proceed not based on the world price. This is where the conversation got interesting!!
His opinion is that China, who already has shares in the project. would buy Petronas interests but only for a different business model wherein they control the extraction, the pipeline, the processing and the transport of the product so they would not be tied to world price. This he said may be Canada's only option for moving forward on LNG in the given environment that exists. This would of course require a total renegotiation not subject to the conditions set out.
Given this Petronas could make the statement we are now consumed with. It really wouldn't matter in that situation.
At any rate in their eagerness it appears our Government has been placed in the precarious situation by people much smarter than themselves. I myself am not surprised.
I only pass along what was said so now the waiting game begins where again time is on THEIR side.
Let me repeat what I posted in the above comments...
_________
Northwest LNG project continue to review the economic viability of the project which, in time of declining oil prices, presents challenges," said the release issued over the name of Spencer Sproule, the former B.C. Liberal staffer now employed as senior adviser for corporate affairs on the project.
Don't you see...Spencer Sproule..BC Liberals gave Petronas Spencer Sproule as a go-between ..a go-between the BC Government and Petronas..
Spencer Sproule's job title is..senior adviser for corporate affairs on the PNW LNG project.
That's it...Spencer Sproule no doubt has the authority to use a Petronas letterhead to make his own statements..
Let me be clear....the so-call "categorically denied" phrase going around..it's alone, not part of a larger/longer statement, and then readers are referred back to the September 28th press release about reviewing the project..
By the way...Spencer K Sproule just blocked me on Twitter..
Very interesting news Lew, especially given that Mr. Coleman essentially said he is ready to re-open the agreement that Ms. Clark said is 'dusted and done'.
____
Grant--
I've heard from Martin MacMahon of CKWX. He says that his colleague there Renee Bernard saw the release from Petronas and used as the basis to update his original story late last night (i.e. Friday).
I've asked Ms. Bernard if what she saw is the one that Mr. Sproule (who I have still not heard from) posted on the Twittmachine.
After news of PNWLNG federal approval broke, reporters immediately went online and discovered that Petronas has been selling off bits of PNWLNG for the last three years. They called Petronas for off-the-record confirmation that yes, Petronas is always in the market, and then *broke* stories that worked out nicely in terms of headlines for them, but not so nicely in timing for the Sparkle Pony Express.
Here's one of those industry reports from 2013:
What does Petronas’ sale of its Canadian LNG assets mean for exports?
Nine months after purchasing Progress Energy, Petronas is shopping stakes in its Canadian LNG business to buyers in India, Japan and beyond
August 27, 2013
Less than a year after the Canadian federal government re-wrote the rules for foreign investment in Canada, one of the companies whose acquisition was approved with the introduction of the new rules is selling a stake in its Canadian LNG assets.
Reports out of South Asia yesterday indicated Malaysia’s state oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd., or Petronas, was shopping a large stake (rumored to be 10 per cent) of its Canadian LNG business. That business is comprised of Progress Energy Canada Ltd., which Petronas acquired last year, a proposed export-focused liquefaction facility, pipeline and terminal through Pacific Northwest LNG and other upstream natural gas assets.
It is unclear whether Petronas intended to sell stakes in this LNG business to just one buyer, as it did in March when the company sold a 10 per cent stake in its planned $11 billion liquefied natural gas project on B.C.’s North Coast to Japan Petroleum Exploration. Rumors are that Petronas is in discussions with New Delhi-based Indian Oil Corp. for a stake in the Canadian shale and LNG export terminal.
[snip]
While it seems odd that Petronas would be willing sell large stakes in the Canadian LNG business so soon after its long pursuit of Progress Energy, the news might actually be in Canada’s best interests.
Petronas’ chief executive Shamsul Azhar Abbas told Bloomberg reporters in Kuala Lumpur last November that “We’re basically helping [Canada] to find an alternative outlet. They are counting on one market, which is the U.S.”
If the planned $11-billion LNG export terminal was partly owned by companies based Malaysia, India and Japan, that could mean three natural export markets for Canadian LNG, allowing Canadian producers to find as many as three alternative outlets. By committing to purchase stakes in the LNG export facility, investors in Japan (and possibly India) would effectively be committing to market a share of the product."
End of report.
I think this report was before they sold off a bit to Brunei but I could be wrong.
After Mr. MacMahon of CKWX was good enough to respond to my query last night I followed up by asking him if he had actually asked Petronas to comment on what the prov gov't NatGas ministry told him that they were denying intentions to sell. Mr. MacMahon has yet to get back to me about that.
Given that Mr. MacMahon told me that his colleague Renee Bernard had written a follow-up story addressing Petronas' statement, I asked Ms. Bernard if she had actually seen the statement and if it was the same one that had been tweeted by the good Mr. Sproule. Ms. Bernard has yet to get back to me about that.
I'm off to the river with the Whackadoodle for our Sunday morning walk/beach guitar strum/stick throw fest...I'll follow up with a 'what we know now' post later.
Even if it is found that Christy Clark or Rich Coleman penned this release in their own hand… what has been accomplished?
We all know they are more than capable of doing so and probably did. Meanwhile countless hours are spent and they have accomplished their diversion.
The Federal government walks away without being questioned about their willful blindness or total incompetence to understand the issue which is that we as British Columbians are being sold down the river. Norm Farrell's latest article provides great insight.
If the project remains 'viable' in Petronas' hands that helps legitimize Mr. Coleman's further negotiations to 'get to that number' he knows about which could very well mean that even more of our assets and regulatory leverage will be given away to the current 'owner' of the project.
However, if the citizenry were to get uppity because they come to view that the project is not viable, well....It would seem to me that the give away (either to the current owner or a future owner) would become, in my opinion very difficult.
And that is why, if there was a diversion, it is important to expose it for what it is.
Both for now and future diversionary attempts.
(and besides, we are amateurs....thus, our hours are free)
BC Liberals faked out the media and public, and faked out the affected research workers with a claim there was an ongoing RCMP investigation...
There was no RCMP investigation...That fake claim by the BC Liberals also allowed them to remain silent and refuse to answer questions as there was..
an ongoing RCMP investigation..
I read Farrell's column Don F...
I don't understand you and Norm's critique of Ross K's post and subsequent comment thread..
It does matter..if it proven that Petronas is considering selling their stake in the project...That means Petronas believes the project is uneconomical..
Thus...It would make it politically unpalatable to BC's public to give away the remaining crumbs in a new rammed through the BC Legislature by the BC Liberals PDA..
My apologies Ross.
I have learned to trust your judgement on things, it is only because of the magnitude of the rip off and all involved that I questioned.
Please, please don't apologize Don. I welcome your comments.
The discussion and back and forth in response is really valuable because it makes you think hard about your arguments and expositions.
In fact, I would argue that such honest discussion is what is valuable on an amateur blog and what is missing from the comments on (no fewer and fewer) proMedia sites. The Tyee seems to sit somewhere in the middle.
Of course, it is entirely possible that there is nothing at all to the specific matter at hand. However, unless I've missed something, I, personally have not seen hard evidence to put it to bed yet.
Grant,
I agree with your analogy that by exposing the source of the release people in B.C. will see this for what it obviously is.
I remember the health Care firings well and the lies told by our government but ask what became of that?
My opinion is that because of the federal government total lack of competence, or willingness to overlook the obvious, that they are involved in this up to their necks and this opens the door for ALL canadians to see and not have it confined to our province.
Perhaps I am wrong!
My comments on Mr. Farrell's site were not to diminish anyone's concerns, it is obvious there are so many dimensions to this that we are seeing it perhaps from different angles.
A 'hats off' to anything but amateur Ross, Grant, Norm, Don, Lew, it is you who are the authentic investigative pros in this province. Much intrigue the past few days especially 24 hours. My naive wonderment—which is less painful for Min Coleman et al. —back to fall lege for Petronas give-away or snap election now. Just wondering.
Did former BC Liberal political staffer Spencer Sproule, who now serves as a go-between the province and Petronas..
Did Spencer Sproule himself produce the 2 words in question.."Categorically denied"
all the media who carried the story...not one has those two words as part of a larger statement..
And..
I've talked to Horgan in the past, we specifically discussed Spencer Sproule...
as in Spencer Sproule is a political animal/muckraker..in the same vane as B Zubyk.
Also..one would think that Petronas' Bossman/CEO Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin would be the one to issue a statement, put his name behind it..
A little more...We know something else...Friday past, Rich Coleman said on CKNW radio..Coleman said he called Petronas and got an assurance that the rumors were false..
Petronas has 10,000 thousands of employees, they are a huge company, when Reuters and others reported that according to Petronas insiders, Petronas was shopping their stake in PNW LNG...
Why didn't Petronas on their own make a public statement denying the rumour..
What, it took a phone call from Rich Coleman to Petronas to wake them up?
It doesn't ring true..
BC Liberals are merely running/playing the clock game..trying to keep the fantasy alive until at least May 2017
Here's another that I'm pretty sure the wizardy concerned is probably asking itself...If, as Sam Cooper of The Province is suggesting, the RE Bubble has popped, what might the resulting economic number shift look like come spring?
Given that I don't listen regularly during the day...
When did Mr. Coleman make this statement on NW...Was it Friday Sept 30th (i.e. after the Fed approval and the Reuters 'sources say' piece) or the previous Friday, Sept 23rd?
OK Ross K.....I just finished browsing cknw's audio vault..
Friday, the noon news..12:00pm..CKNW reported the Reuters' story...further into the noon news Robert Levy comes on to talk the markets(he's a regular market reporter..
Levy talked about the Petronas story, the selling, and how difficult it would be in this market to sell their share...
So..at 12:15 PM Friday the Petronas selling their stake story was alive...
ahh..so I went to the 1:pm newscast on cknw..
And there it was...CKNW reported the story again..only then..
only then did cknw's radio voice say...
paraphrasing here..
"but the province disagrees, according to natural gas minister Rich Coleman...he called Petronas and was reassured the rumours weren't true...." snip
http://www.cknw.com/audio-vault/
So..12:00 pm major news the story was alive and trending..including Robert Levy weighing in
Rich Coleman and the Clarkettes must have been fuming..
by 1:00 pm Friday...Rich Coleman claimed he had made a call to Petronas and was reassured the rumours were false..
Cue Spencer Sproule..
anywho..Still waiting for an official response from someone further up the Petronas food chain..
That squares with what CKWX' Martin MacMahon told me...That he got his denial from the prov gov's NatGas Ministry BEFORE there was any 'official' denial from Petronas.
By the way...still nothing on the Petronas website...Is it Monday morning in Malaysia yet?...
Yes, it's Monday morning here in Malaysia. Expect a minimum of 5 working days for Petronas to issue a press release on any current topic. No, I'm not kidding.
"We expect Petronas to go *free-cash-flow negative* this financial year and next after meeting their capex and dividend requirements," said Fitch senior director Sajal Kishore.
Some background info... Petronas was unable to get a loan for USD $7 billion for the Pengerang project in its own back yard in Johor, Malaysia. Petronas. So a nonth or so ago, Petronas riped in financial assistance from Saudi Aramco.
Bear in mind, this Pengerang project was originally supposed to be financed by Petronas cash, and *not* by Petronas taking a loan.
So... If Petronas is currently unable to secure a USD $7 billion lian by itself for an O&G project in its own country, can someone please explain how Petronas expects to secure more than double that anount of loans for a project in Canada?
So, Petronas is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They have already unvested heavily in acquiring O&G assets in Canada for this project.
But they are having a cash crunch. I've been commented for around a year that I don't see oil prices recovering until around 2019, and LNG prices recovering until around 2022. Both due to overproduction.
Petronas can't realistically sell its LNG assets in Canada. Depressed market for the forseeable future. Petronas *definitely* will insist on "saving face" as well.
The only realistic outcome I can see right now is for Petronas to defer this B.C. LNG project for a few years, while it "studies" the 190 conditions attached to the Canadian aporoval.
(Please excuse any typos, I'm just writing this on the fly on my smartphone, and don't know how to edit comments on this forum.)
Oh, and I see Grant G of *The Straight Goods* comments here. I've used his site before to track down dox.
As I mentioned earlier, I'm impressed with the fact checking by commenters in this thread. Reminds me of the old Usenet days, and the (sadly retired credo) by Anons of "Dox or GTFO".
Ross K, the 190 conditions added to the "approval" gives the perfect face-saving opportunity to Petronas, to delay the project. While Canadians may be stuck with the political shenanigans and soap boxing due to your upcoming 2017 elections, Petronas can easily wait this out, as Canadian politicians dither.
I've been saying for about a year, that I don't see global LNG prices recovering until around 2022. Ongoing global overproduction, and new LNG projects still due to finally come on line by 2020.
Simple economics. Global LNG production is increasing roughly 40% in a 3 year time span. I don't see global LNG demand catching up to global LNG supply until after 2020, and a rough equalization of supply and demand around 2022.
After being forced to wait 3 years for Canadian "approval" (with 190 conditions) Petronas should be in no rush to move ahead right now.
Does anyone else see this whole project as shuffling paper? Like a Futures Market scam? Is it a backdoor to a China FTA? China buys the project and then changes the whole thing to get their "tidewater"?
Nope. Petronas has already invested billions of dollars into this, acquiring Canadian O&G assets. This B.C. LNG project has been a high priority by Petronas for a few years.
A year or so ago, Malaysia was the world's third largest exporter of LNG. This B.C. project was meant to cement Petronas' global status. Shortly, Malaysia will be bumped down to the world's *fifth* largest exporter of LNG.
A few years ago, when LNG prices were skyrocketing, Petronas saw this B.C. project as a long term goose that lays golden eggs.
Now, with LNG prices depressed for the next half decade or so, and with Malaysian government and Petronas cash crunch, the game plan will most likely get delayed.
Grant G, don't hold your breath waiting for a press release from Petronas about a decision regarding PNW LNG.
Bear in mind while Canada has elections in 2017, Malaysia may call for early elections around Q2 2017. Expect soapboxing by politicians in Malaysia as well, as Petronas is a key economic driver in Malaysia.
LNG markets could return to balance by 2021 and spur “second wave” of opportunity: analyst
CALGARY — Global markets for LNG could return to balance as early as 2021, ushering in a “second wave” of opportunity for developers of the supercooled gas on Canada’s West Coast, commodities analyst Martin King said." _______________
Hmm, but who is Martin King? is he an independent analyist, no, is he a CEOI of a big energy company? no...Who is he..
Mr. King went on to say this..
____________
“There’s still a window open,” said King, the director of institutional research at GMP FirstEnergy. _________
Who is GMP First energy, who did the Financial Post go to for the spin..?
______________
"In September 2016, GMP Securities combined its energy businesses with Calgary-based FirstEnergy Capital to create GMP FirstEnergy, a leading independent global energy investment bank.....
GMP FirstEnergy's highly experienced professional are solely dedicated to fostering global energy development. As such, the franchise plays a prominent role in the energy sector providing focused financial, advisory and investment services to a broad range of corporate clients and institutional investors worldwide"
LNG markets could return to balance by 2021 and spur “second wave” of opportunity: analyst
CALGARY — Global markets for LNG could return to balance as early as 2021, ushering in a “second wave” of opportunity for developers of the supercooled gas on Canada’s West Coast, commodities analyst Martin King said." ____________
Hmm, but who is Martin King? is he an independent analyist, no, is he a CEOI of a big energy company? no...Who is he..
Mr. King went on to say this..
___________
“There’s still a window open,” said King, the director of institutional research at GMP FirstEnergy.
Who is GMP First energy, who did the Financial Post go to for the spin..?
"In September 2016, GMP Securities combined its energy businesses with Calgary-based FirstEnergy Capital to create GMP FirstEnergy, a leading independent global energy investment bank.....
GMP FirstEnergy's highly experienced professional are solely dedicated to fostering global energy development. As such, the franchise plays a prominent role in the energy sector providing focused financial, advisory and investment services to a broad range of corporate clients and institutional investors worldwide"
So, a newly created energy project investment/lending outfit is trumpeting a second-wave...Rose-coloured glasses and too much LNG w(h)ine
_______________
Well, could it be that The Straight Goods was wrong about the LNG glut extending to 2030...was I wrong about Petronas, all those bullish(bullshit) articles trumpeting BC LNG, could it, would it, should it.......and lo n behold out came another LNG article, out of Calgary..
_____________
B.C. LNG proponents bullish about industry's future
Despite delays and low prices plaguing liquefied natural gas projects proposed in British Columbia, some proponents told a Calgary audience Wednesday they remain bullish about the industry’s future.
Robert Dakers, commercial director for the Shell-backed project in Kitimat, B.C., dubbed LNG Canada, said the West Coast industry missed the first wave of LNG demand, but that it could take advantage of a new surge expected in the next decade.
“There is still a very strong prospect that B.C. LNG will happen,” Dakers said during an industry conference, citing forecasts that global demand could spike from 250 million tonnes annually to 400 million tonnes within the next 10 years.
LNG Canada, which would export up to 24 million tonnes per year, is among a few proposed B.C. projects that have received government approvals but have been placed on hold amid low prices and an oversupply of natural gas.
Pacific NorthWest LNG, backed by Malaysia’s Petronas, received approvals from Ottawa last month, raising some hope for the industry, though the partners are still reviewing the project’s future.
Twenty LNG projects have been proposed in B.C., but prices for natural gas have fallen, casting the industry into some doubt. According to analysts, only a handful of the proposals is likely viable.
“The obituary on this industry has been written a million times,” said Byng Giraud, a vice-president with the proposed Woodfibre LNG project north of Vancouver.
Giraud said his group is attempting to drive down the costs of its project so it can offer buyers a lower price and become economically feasible in a tight market.
“This project will go,” he told reporters. “We’re so capital-intensive, though. Do we have to wait for a better price?”
Rich Coleman, B.C.’s minister of Natural Gas Development, was strikingly upbeat, telling the crowd he expects three major LNG projects and perhaps three or four smaller ones will go ahead.
Coleman said he plans to meet with Petronas’ board and its partners over the weekend to get a sense of their timelines on reaching a decision on whether they will green-light the project, expected to produce up to 19.2 million tonnes of LNG.
The B.C. minister said he’s “pretty optimistic” about the industry, though he has been called an “idiot” in his home province for having such an upbeat outlook.
“I keep being told I’m wrong,” Coleman said. “I just remind them (the naysayers) of one thing, that they have to invite me to dinner the night that I get to watch them eat their words.”
Jeremy McCrea, an analyst with the investment firm Raymond James, said energy data he reviews suggests proponents are not in a rush to move their projects ahead. He said Petronas appears to be slowing down on licensing natural gas wells that would feed into its proposed LNG terminal, which “signals to me they are questioning the viability of these projects.”
“Things could always change down the road,” McCrea said in an interview. “But as it currently stands now, the dedication to working toward building projects has definitely slowed down in terms of delineation and well-licensing from these companies.”
I have highlighted the pertinent statements above from Rich Coleman....
So last weekend...on October 16th/2016 Rich Coleman headed to Malaysia to talk LNG with Petronas....
Today is October 20th/2016.....and some shocking news has revealed itself..discreetly but never the less the narrative has changed and it changed real fast, the spindoctors are working overtime...what changed..what news did Rich Coleman receive in Malaysia, what exactly did Petronas say to Rich gasman Coleman...There have been no tweets or Government press releases, not even fake BC Liberal press releases..
Because...
Remember what Martin King said in that Financial Post article, remember what the Conference Board of Canada said, what Rich Coleman said on October 13th/2016..I do..and I quote..
______
CALGARY — Global markets for LNG could return to balance as early as 2021, ushering in a “second wave” of opportunity for developers of the supercooled gas on Canada’s West Coast, commodities analyst Martin King said." _____________ and here is what Rich Coleman said just before he left to Malaysia to talk to Petronas.. __________
Rich Coleman, B.C.’s minister of Natural Gas Development, was strikingly upbeat, telling the crowd he expects three major LNG projects and perhaps three or four smaller ones will go ahead.
Coleman said he plans to meet with Petronas’ board and its partners over the weekend to get a sense of their timelines on reaching a decision on whether they will green-light the project, expected to produce up to 19.2 million tonnes of LNG.
The B.C. minister said he’s “pretty optimistic” about the industry, though he has been called an “idiot” in his home province for having such an upbeat outlook.
“I keep being told I’m wrong,” Coleman said. “I just remind them (the naysayers) of one thing, that they have to invite me to dinner the night that I get to watch them eat their words.”
______________
Have you heard the latest, the new narrative on LNG in BC, from the same spindoctors...
Remember what I posted above, what Rich Coleman said on October 16th/2016 and what Martin King said on October 13th/2016..
Now fast forward three whole days to October19th/2016..yesterday...
First up, Petronas just signed a 5 year supply deal to get gas from Qatar gas..
Once again, for the second time in the last 18 months Petronas has locked in gas supplies from other producers, thus they can meet their contracted deliveries, and here comes the big news, the shocker, confirmation of what I have been saying about BC LNG and the world LNG glut and how long it will extend to..
I'll highlight the really important parts of the shocking truth-revealing article below..
______________________
Varcoe: LNG projects stuck in limbo, but B.C. still confident of success
British Columbia deputy premier Rich Coleman is busy travelling in Asia this week, meeting with LNG proponents about projects proposed for Canada’s West Coast.
It will be a more pleasant trip than the one he made this spring.
Back then, questions were flying over why federal approval for the mammoth Pacific NorthWest LNG project was taking so long, as Ottawa gave the proposal further environmental scrutiny.
But last month’s green light from the Trudeau cabinet has breathed new life into the dreams of building liquefied natural gas export facilities in B.C., Coleman insists.
This week’s trip to Asia includes meetings in Kuala Lumpur with senior officials from Petronas, Malaysia’s state-owned energy company and the main proponent behind the $36-billion Pacific NorthWest LNG development at Prince Rupert.
“The permit itself was an important thing to get to,” Coleman, who’s also B.C’s minister of natural gas development, said in a recent interview in Calgary.
“This is the one everyone globally was looking at saying, ‘How long is it going to take?’ ”
The dreams of Christy Clark’s government to turn her province into an LNG powerhouse took off in 2012 with much hype and even more hope. It included promises of up to 100,000 jobs and talk of a $100-billion prosperity fund for the province.
About 20 LNG projects have been proposed, yet nothing has been built.
Debate has turned in recent months to whether Canada has missed the boat for LNG development, dithering while other countries passed us by.
As the Clark government has learned, large-scale energy developments are incredibly complex, affected by volatile commodity prices, evolving government regulations, increasing environmental oversight, concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and intense competition for capital.
Some projects have already been put on hold due to low LNG prices amid a global oversupply.
For example, the Shell-led LNG Canada project announced in July that it would delay a final investment decision beyond 2016 on the development, which could cost up to US$40 billion to build.
Pacific NorthWest LNG, viewed as one of the best prospects for success in Canada, was stuck in a holding pattern as it went through a lengthy federal environmental review that began in 2013.
“When I was in Asia (in May) it was really a question about … are you guys open in Canada for business,” said Coleman, the veteran MLA for Fort Langley-Aldergrove.
“But there is a bit of a sigh of relief among the Asian partners in that project and others saying, ‘OK, now we know that we can get this sort of thing done in Canada.’ ”
After last month’s federal approval, Petronas stated it would study the 190 conditions imposed by Ottawa and review the project before deciding on its next steps.
While there’s been speculation the company won’t move ahead due to low LNG prices and its own shrinking capital spending plans — or it may try to sell off its interest in the venture — Coleman isn’t concerned.
He notes Petronas already spent $5.2 billion acquiring Calgary-based Progress Energy and its gas resources, and he estimates another $6 billion has gone into drilling out its properties, building gas plants and making other related investments.
But it’s far from a slam dunk.
A slowdown in the demand growth for gas globally, a “tsunami of new LNG supply entering the market,” and low oil prices are conspiring to keep liquefied natural gas prices low for the rest of the decade, according to a recent Conference Board of Canada report.
The think-tank predicts LNG prices will be mired below US$10 per gigajoule over the next four years, well off the $16 mark seen just a few years ago in Asia.
Global LNG investment expanded at 11 per cent annually over the past decade, totalling some US$200 billion, but it’s projected to fall to $4 billion by 2020.
Yet the drop in investment over the next four years could eventually bolster the need for new projects to meet global demand for gas in the next decade. “That’s where Canada’s opportunity lies,” the report concluded.
For Western Canadian producers, getting an export facility built would unlock new markets for their gas, an imperative given the shale gas boom that’s taken place in the United States.
“As a Canadian, I think it’s important to have LNG exports and open up new markets. You can see the huge demand for LNG that will be needed in places like China and Japan,” Shell Canada president Michael Crothers said recently.
“Right now, the market doesn’t look very good, but it will always turn. This is part of the dynamics of our sector.”
Industry analyst Martin King of GMP FirstEnergy said the next window of opportunity for LNG development in Canada is six or seven years down the road.
It’s likely a 50-50 prospect on whether Petronas and its partners proceed with Pacific NorthWest; at most, B.C. could see two or three projects go ahead around the 2025-2027 time frame, he said.
“There are no guarantee any of these projects will go ahead,” King said Tuesday.
But Coleman remains confident he’ll see some progress by the end of this year. During a speech in Calgary last week, he estimated three major projects and another three or four smaller ones would advance.
“We are on the cusp of success,” the minister told the audience.
For Western Canadian gas producers, let’s hope he’s right.
But as the B.C. government has learned after much hoopla, nothing is certain when pursuing energy mega-projects.
Ok....For those not paying attention....After news broke that Petronas was shopping/selling their majority stake in PNW LNG(no one would buy their stake anyway)..
After Reuters broke the story about Petronas shopping their stake, Spencer Sproule appears to once again create a Petronas Press Release statement out of whole cloth..
Ross K and I busted that story wide open...Then the BC Liberals called in their industry media friends and article after article churned and burned, spindoctors raving about the future, the rosy LNG future BC was going to have..
Rich Coleman on October 16th/2016, before he flew to Malaysia to chit chat with Petronas was musing about three large LNG projects and four smaller LNG projects going forward....
And Martin King...GMP energy expert Martin King said on October 13th/2016 BEFORE Rich Coleman went to Malaysia, and I quote..
____________
LNG markets could return to balance by 2021 and spur “second wave” of opportunity: analyst
CALGARY — Global markets for LNG could return to balance as early as 2021, ushering in a “second wave” of opportunity for developers of the supercooled gas on Canada’s West Coast, commodities analyst Martin King said."....
“The idea that there is a glut, that there is oversupply… we just don’t think that’s the case,” King said.
And after Rich Coleman went to Malaysia...The same Martin King who was blathering about 2020/2021 as the time when the glut will end is now saying the next window of opportunity is now, goalposts have been moved to 2025-2027..
What happened Martin King?, over the course of one week you changed your tune from 2021 to 2027...Exactly what bad news did Rich Coleman divulge to you?...is that new narrative, a 10 year wait for the LNG gold...10 year wait for the prosperity to start?
Well, there is more breaking news....Remember our LNG producer/competitor..Remember Australia...LNG is making them broke...It appears that the Australian taxpayer will never see a return on their investments or writing off $200 billion in LNG terminal build costs...A inquiry has started, Australia is setting out to find why it isn't receiving any of the promised LNG revenue..
Western Australia calls for 'more scrutiny' on where LNG wealth is going
It appears to me that Christy Clark was seething after learning Petronas is bailing until at least 2025-2027..or bailing forever..
That might explain her willingness to attack education and in particular the VSB...
nah, Christy Clark just hates public education teachers....Somehow Christy Clark thinks public education teachers failed her...hmmm, perhaps they did...you know, word salad is forever..
The Straight Goods..
____________
Burning down the house....And Christy Clark's LNG delusion..
The Straight Goods
Cheers Eyes Wide Open
8 comments:
Anonymous
said...
Well done Grant! The pompous idiots running this province need to be run right out of it come May. All the bs advertising going on now on "our" the "taxpayers" money is outrageous. No sitting of the legislature, is that like proroguing just like Harper? Can't ask questions if you're not there to answer. I'd say so. Wake of British Columbians. 4 more years of these jackasses, now that's absolutely frightening and sickening.
Thanks Grant for the continuing updates on all the BC Liberal Party Sparkel Pony the Shady and Shakey LNG Promises and Petronas Pirate developments.
You, Ross K. and Norm Farrell and other citizen bloggers have done more digging, research and analysis than the government captured and industry sponsored media. Amazing they think they can get away with their continued cheer leading in the face of all the evidence from you and expert offshore independent (non cheerleading) sources. What we now have in BC is a desperate drag out retreat by Christy and Co to keep the LNG promise on life support till after the election. It is all for show - what a shock!
A question for you Grant... given the carbon bomb that the Petronas project would create, an increase of about 10% in BC 's current total CO2 emissions - equivalent of the CO2 produced by BC' s existing two million motor vehicles! What CO2 impact would Coleman's Hail Mary three or four more possible LNG projects and how would these extra carbon bombs be even feasible and?allowed
In the recently announced Federal approval it was made very clear that the CO2 emissions of any additional projects would be even more problematic in meeting the 'pledged' reduction of emissions. I think the BC Libs are shadow flipping a three card Monty Ponzie scheme and simply continuing to pretend and promise knowing that 'their' media will not call them out for the obvious limitations. Christy, Coleman, Polak and company can plant trees, high five Site C and Run of River etc. but I think it would be mostly shuffling numbers to justify more CO2 industry.
Thanks Bill...What about the massive increase in emissions?...Don't you know, Christy Clark has til 2050 to produce her mythical carbon vacuum...eer, I mean, ahem, something about a can being mercilessly kicked down a road..
First of I really enjoy reading your articles and thanks for the amount of time you put into these items. I cam back today because I read again today ( Business in Vancouver ) a story from Bob Mackin that sure enough as you mentioned also Rich Coleman is in Malaysia and is open to re-negotiating a better deal.... for them not us. Just how much is the Liberal government willing to giveaway to fulfill Christy's promise of trillions of dollars & a million or so jobs ? I'm sure Petronas officials knew very well that our government would come begging sooner or later. Something in your article caught my attention today..... " After 5 years of BC Liberals squandering $billions on LNG promotion we came back to the raw truth, we come back to." Is there a way to add up all the money the government has spent so far ? And why isn't anyone talking about this ? This has the makings of a Fast Ferry scandal where money was spent and we ended up with nothing.
Guy....That article in BIV...read the one comment below it.it's mine...I wrote the LNG saga four years ago, three years ago, two years ago, last year, last month and last week...That BIV expert they quote is making observations after the horse left the barn, that's easy, try forecasting 2 years ahead of the rest, that's where you separate the amateurs from the pros(from one pro)..
Rich Coleman did go to Malaysia last week, he was told to get stuffed by Petronas..They ain't building anything..
2 weeks ago Michael Smyth scabbed my article...This BIV article today was literally plagerized directly from my site..
And again, no attribution given, those pretenders are mere Wente wannabes, copycats without an original thought..
Check this long forum discussion out....308 comments, it's all about you know who..
Either the whole population knows she's blowing smoke, they are oblivious to the chicanery or they don't care. What worries me is that it's the second option: they are unaware of what's going on, otherwise they would be up in arms over the cost this government is unloading on them. I'm afraid the average voter is too busy earning mortgage payments, putting food on the table and scheduling junior's soccer practise to spend much time reading blogs. The six o'clock news doesn't do it! Horgan's silence doesn't help! I fear for us come May 2017. I don't believe this province can sustain another four years of Liberal largesse.
KUALA LUMPUR: Petronas is expected to bring in Saudi Arabian Oil Co, or Saudi Aramco, as its partner for a roughly USD21 billion (RM87.8 billion) refining and petrochemicals project in Johor.
The Wall Street Journal, quoting two people familiar with the matter, reported that Petronas would make a final decision on the possible partnership in December.
The WSJ said Petronas would offer the world’s largest oil firm a 50 per cent stake in the project which comprises a refinery, petrochemical plants and other related facilities.
If Petronas proceeds with the plan, the two companies will set up a joint-venture company in the first quarter of next year to run the project, with the refinery due to start operating in early 2019, according to the report.
The WSJ said Petronas declined to comment and Aramco wasn’t immediately available for comment.
It said the entry of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, into the project would be a coup for Petronas.
And you think what is trying to be done in BC won't be cost overrun?And we'll be paying for it, one sees how the corporate gets breaks. Every project this government has touch has gone over budget. Absolutely shameful, Christy and Co.
61 comments:
OK...Here is the last OFFICIAL press release statement from Petronas..
__________
28/9/2016
PRESS STATEMENT ON CONDITIONAL APPROVAL BY THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA FOR THE PNW LNG PROJECT
PETRONAS is pleased that the Government of Canada has given a conditional approval for the proposed Pacific NorthWest LNG project.
On behalf of the partners of the proposed project, PETRONAS would like to thank the Government of Canada, the Canadian Environment Assessment Agency, area First Nations, local residents and all other relevant stakeholders for their constructive participation in the process of reaching this approval.
PETRONAS and its partners will study the conditions imposed by the Canadian authorities and conduct a total review of the proposed project prior to deciding on the next steps forward.
http://www.petronas.com.my/media-relations/media-releases/Pages/article/Canada-LNG_4Z4X5M.aspx
____________
This link takes you to Petronas's press releases for 2016..
http://www.petronas.com.my/media-relations/media-releases/Pages/2016.aspx
____________
And here is the same story reported by Reuters..
___________
Malaysian state oil firm Petroliam Nasional Bhd, or Petronas, said it "categorically denied" a Reuters report that it was considering selling its majority stake in a $27 billion Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
Petronas is weighing several options for the project that was approved earlier this week by Canada, but had yet to take a final decision, Reuters reported on Friday citing three people familiar with the matter. Other options are also being considered, including putting the project on ice.
"Petronas reiterates that, together with the project partners, it will study the conditions that come with the approval and conduct a total review of the project prior to making a decision on the next steps forward," the company said in a statement on Saturday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-petronas-lng-idUSKCN1212ZB
Read the article Ross
What you have is the same press release saying Petronas an partners will review the project...That statement was made September 28th...
The CBC and Reuters is reporting an alleged verbal statement saying
"categorically denied"
But but but...I can't find that phrase in any statement from Petronas..Petronas keeps referring media back to the September 28th press release(the one about reviewing the project and conditions with partners..
On cknw yesterday(Sept/30th), during their newscast...CKNW reported and aired Rich Coleman saying.. Paraphrasing here..:I called Petronas and they "categorically denied" they were considering selling" then Coleman referred to the Sept28th press release about reviewing the project and conditions...
In other words...Show me the whole Petronas statement denying they are considering selling...
However...Petronas and partners might be interested in what Coleman is prepared to do/giveaway in a new rejiggered PDA...
Lastly...Does Rich Coleman really think that a ginormous energy company would keep him privy to their financial moves?..Does the B.C. media believe Petronas would give Coleman the straight goods?
Big media is lazy, and bought..
I don't see the statement denying anything..
And..Michael Smyth's last article..His research is lacking, the information he writes for his readers is inaccurate, false, a lie?
Michael Smyth wrote...
"but there's no guarantee the proposed Pacific Northwest LNG project near Prince Rupert-the first to be approved-will actually get built" snip
http://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/mike-smyth-will-premier-clark-slash-lng-taxes-to-deliver-on-her-election-promise
Michael Smyth is wrong..CAPP..LNG spindoctors..BC's media...They have been running a bogus narrative, they have been reporting that BC's and the BC Liberal's LNG industry is being held up by regulatory delays and red tape...
Wrong..Shell Canada had 40 year export permit, an environmental certificate and First Nation deal..so did AltaGas, ..and so does Woodfibre...
Shell deferred, Altagas bailed and Woodfibre has no buyers...Chevron in Kitimat, they too would have gotten all the permits...Chevron bailed early...
Petronas is not the first approved..the 4th to be approved..
Lastly...Petronas won't go forward unless one of two things happen...#1-They find Asian buyers willing to lock in for LNg buys for decades at a price of $14 and up...
#2- British Columbia slashes its cut to nothing in a new PDA...
on the last point...Coleman may well do it...and if LNG price does zoom back up in the future..
British Columbia would be locked into a share of nothing, a percentage of zippo..
Cheers
I saw some statement on Twitter with the denial on Twitter...Will try and find it again.
Also found it interesting that MMcMahon of WX was reporting that the BCL gov't was reporting that they had been told by Petronas that they had no plans to sell.
There is sure some KloutKlubbish-type deflector spinning going down.
.
Here's a link to the Tweet mentioned above.
I've asked the author for a link (the fact that it didn't have one is why I didn't include it in my post in the first place).
.
That tweet(er) you linked to is...
Spencer Sproule...Who is Spencer Sproule?
Are you ready?
From Vaughn Palmer(December 4th/2014)..See if you can spot the cryptic clue
"Petronas and its partners in the Pacific Northwest LNG project continue to review the economic viability of the project which, in time of declining oil prices, presents challenges," said the release issued over the name of Spencer Sproule, the former B.C. Liberal staffer now employed as senior adviser for corporate affairs on the project.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vaughn+Palmer+good+ship+springs+leak/10438159/story.html
____________
Hmm..another press release issued over the name of Spencer Sproule, the former B.C. Liberal staffer...
If I was betting man Ross...I'd say that Vaughn Palmer went in search of an official press release confirming something that the BC Government said of Petronas was true....
And all he could find was some words over Spencer Sproule's name, the former BC Liberal staffer..
By the way..Spencer is still a BC Liberal staffer.
Cheers
(still no response from the good Mr. Sproule)
.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/petronas-says-firm-is-not-considering-sale-of-proposed-lng-terminal-in-b-c-1.3096708
They have nothing either..real thin..they have this in that linked article.
"categorically denied"
no link, no name,...
Bigtime story making going on
The issue is that this is ass backwards. There is a natural flow to this that is being ignored big time.
There was two ways for this to play out neither requiring more time as though time was of the essence as we were led to believe.
a] the government could have presented Petronas with the conditions and stated they would approve project IF petronas met all conditions. This would have left the power in the hands of our government where it should be!
b] The government, as it did, conditionally giving approval if Petronas met conditions afterwards. This giving the power to Petronas where now we are being held hostage to these silly games.
All this aside from the fact they are all playing with traditional native lands that by supreme ruling requires consent.
I agree with the power shift driven by the 'approval'.
Of course the Clarklandian wizardry wanted to use it purely to bamboozle the local rubes, but the bigger story is that it put Petronas in the driver's seat in more ways than one.
So...
What Grant and I really wondering is the following:
Is this 'categorical denial' stuff purely the invention of the local wizards that has been designed to protect their rube bamboozlement play?
.
However, confriming sources is now needed in British Columbia..
Let me jog your memory..The ongoing health researcher firing...
The BC Liberals for over a year, maybe two...BC Liberals said there was an RCMP investigation...The media ran with it..
BC Liberals were allowed to stay quiet because there was an investigation going on..
But..there was no investigation...BC Liberals played the people, played the RCMP and played the media..
http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/10/01/petronas-weighs-sale-to-exit-$27-bln-canada-lng-project/
Guess Petronas PR team doesn't work the weekends...
Still haven't heard from the author of the 'in case you missed it' press release tweetwhich has garnered a most interesting group of re-tweeters.
.
fyi When searching for a take from non-English news source, I type keys words into Google translate.
A search in Malay, brings 'different' results than a search in English…interesting that…
CBC: "...Earlier, Reuters issued a report, citing three unnamed sources, that Petroliam Nasional, or Petronas, was weighing options for the project as its finances have been squeezed after crude oil prices have collapsed by more than 50 per cent since mid-2014. LNG prices for delivery into the main markets in northeast Asia have slumped more than 70 per cent over nearly the same time period."
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/petronas-lng-project-1.3785389
Ya, we discussed the Reueters' piece yesterday.
Clearly that piece is the one that has generated all the pushback.
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I bet I read that yesterday…starting to forget what I remember…
This is what the Game Players are counting on. And. I'm trying to keep up!
Ya, it is, indeed what they're counting on.
Still no word from the fine BCL Party- and PNWLNG-affliated fellow who authored the 'in case you missed it' press release tweet.
Interestingly, that tweet has been retweeted by Stephanie Cadieux and Michele Cadario.
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David Schreck asked him, “Didn't see source on what you Tweeted. How high up the chain of command at Petronas & why not on their site!”
He didn’t respond to me, but to Schreck he said, “- statement sent to any media that requested it. Issued by PETRONAS Media Relations.”
So rather than simply put a press release on their site, Petronas is responding individually to media outlets. Really??
Wonder if there is a local division of 'Petronas Media Relations'?
I'm going to ask Martin MacMahon who sent him the press release, assuming he got one.
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Basically the message was that there is no chance for Petronas to sell given the world price on natural gas now or in the foreseeable future. So even if they wished to sell it would be virtually impossible.
The situation is that they only have the option to put the project on ice or look for another way to proceed not based on the world price. This is where the conversation got interesting!!
His opinion is that China, who already has shares in the project. would buy Petronas interests but only for a different business model wherein they control the extraction, the pipeline, the processing and the transport of the product so they would not be tied to world price. This he said may be Canada's only option for moving forward on LNG in the given environment that exists. This would of course require a total renegotiation not subject to the conditions set out.
Given this Petronas could make the statement we are now consumed with. It really wouldn't matter in that situation.
At any rate in their eagerness it appears our Government has been placed in the precarious situation by people much smarter than themselves. I myself am not surprised.
I only pass along what was said so now the waiting game begins where again time is on THEIR side.
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Northwest LNG project continue to review the economic viability of the project which, in time of declining oil prices, presents challenges," said the release issued over the name of Spencer Sproule, the former B.C. Liberal staffer now employed as senior adviser for corporate affairs on the project.
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Vaughn+Palmer+good+ship+springs+leak/10438159/story.html
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Don't you see...Spencer Sproule..BC Liberals gave Petronas Spencer Sproule as a go-between ..a go-between the BC Government and Petronas..
Spencer Sproule's job title is..senior adviser for corporate affairs on the PNW LNG project.
That's it...Spencer Sproule no doubt has the authority to use a Petronas letterhead to make his own statements..
Let me be clear....the so-call "categorically denied" phrase going around..it's alone, not part of a larger/longer statement, and then readers are referred back to the September 28th press release about reviewing the project..
By the way...Spencer K Sproule just blocked me on Twitter..
Cheers
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Grant--
I've heard from Martin MacMahon of CKWX. He says that his colleague there Renee Bernard saw the release from Petronas and used as the basis to update his original story late last night (i.e. Friday).
I've asked Ms. Bernard if what she saw is the one that Mr. Sproule (who I have still not heard from) posted on the Twittmachine.
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After news of PNWLNG federal approval broke, reporters immediately went online and discovered that Petronas has been selling off bits of PNWLNG for the last three years. They called Petronas for off-the-record confirmation that yes, Petronas is always in the market, and then *broke* stories that worked out nicely in terms of headlines for them, but not so nicely in timing for the Sparkle Pony Express.
Here's one of those industry reports from 2013:
What does Petronas’ sale of its Canadian LNG assets mean for exports?
Nine months after purchasing Progress Energy, Petronas is shopping stakes in its Canadian LNG business to buyers in India, Japan and beyond
August 27, 2013
Less than a year after the Canadian federal government re-wrote the rules for foreign investment in Canada, one of the companies whose acquisition was approved with the introduction of the new rules is selling a stake in its Canadian LNG assets.
Reports out of South Asia yesterday indicated Malaysia’s state oil company Petroliam Nasional Bhd., or Petronas, was shopping a large stake (rumored to be 10 per cent) of its Canadian LNG business. That business is comprised of Progress Energy Canada Ltd., which Petronas acquired last year, a proposed export-focused liquefaction facility, pipeline and terminal through Pacific Northwest LNG and other upstream natural gas assets.
It is unclear whether Petronas intended to sell stakes in this LNG business to just one buyer, as it did in March when the company sold a 10 per cent stake in its planned $11 billion liquefied natural gas project on B.C.’s North Coast to Japan Petroleum Exploration. Rumors are that Petronas is in discussions with New Delhi-based Indian Oil Corp. for a stake in the Canadian shale and LNG export terminal.
[snip]
While it seems odd that Petronas would be willing sell large stakes in the Canadian LNG business so soon after its long pursuit of Progress Energy, the news might actually be in Canada’s best interests.
Petronas’ chief executive Shamsul Azhar Abbas told Bloomberg reporters in Kuala Lumpur last November that “We’re basically helping [Canada] to find an alternative outlet. They are counting on one market, which is the U.S.”
If the planned $11-billion LNG export terminal was partly owned by companies based Malaysia, India and Japan, that could mean three natural export markets for Canadian LNG, allowing Canadian producers to find as many as three alternative outlets. By committing to purchase stakes in the LNG export facility, investors in Japan (and possibly India) would effectively be committing to market a share of the product."
End of report.
I think this report was before they sold off a bit to Brunei but I could be wrong.
Thanks Alison--
So.
Is what we saw from the good Mr. Sproule some sort of bizarre non-denial denial that they have plans to 'sell' the (not stated) 'entire' factory?
In which case, I suppose it would be more of a limited hangout.
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After Mr. MacMahon of CKWX was good enough to respond to my query last night I followed up by asking him if he had actually asked Petronas to comment on what the prov gov't NatGas ministry told him that they were denying intentions to sell. Mr. MacMahon has yet to get back to me about that.
Given that Mr. MacMahon told me that his colleague Renee Bernard had written a follow-up story addressing Petronas' statement, I asked Ms. Bernard if she had actually seen the statement and if it was the same one that had been tweeted by the good Mr. Sproule. Ms. Bernard has yet to get back to me about that.
I'm off to the river with the Whackadoodle for our Sunday morning walk/beach guitar strum/stick throw fest...I'll follow up with a 'what we know now' post later.
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We all know they are more than capable of doing so and probably did. Meanwhile countless hours are spent and they have accomplished their diversion.
The Federal government walks away without being questioned about their willful blindness or total incompetence to understand the issue which is that we as British Columbians are being sold down the river. Norm Farrell's latest article provides great insight.
If the project remains 'viable' in Petronas' hands that helps legitimize Mr. Coleman's further negotiations to 'get to that number' he knows about which could very well mean that even more of our assets and regulatory leverage will be given away to the current 'owner' of the project.
However, if the citizenry were to get uppity because they come to view that the project is not viable, well....It would seem to me that the give away (either to the current owner or a future owner) would become, in my opinion very difficult.
And that is why, if there was a diversion, it is important to expose it for what it is.
Both for now and future diversionary attempts.
(and besides, we are amateurs....thus, our hours are free)
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BC Liberals faked out the media and public, and faked out the affected research workers with a claim there was an ongoing RCMP investigation...
There was no RCMP investigation...That fake claim by the BC Liberals also allowed them to remain silent and refuse to answer questions as there was..
an ongoing RCMP investigation..
I read Farrell's column Don F...
I don't understand you and Norm's critique of Ross K's post and subsequent comment thread..
It does matter..if it proven that Petronas is considering selling their stake in the project...That means Petronas believes the project is uneconomical..
Thus...It would make it politically unpalatable to BC's public to give away the remaining crumbs in a new rammed through the BC Legislature by the BC Liberals PDA..
Cheers
I have learned to trust your judgement on things, it is only because of the magnitude of the rip off and all involved that I questioned.
The discussion and back and forth in response is really valuable because it makes you think hard about your arguments and expositions.
In fact, I would argue that such honest discussion is what is valuable on an amateur blog and what is missing from the comments on (no fewer and fewer) proMedia sites. The Tyee seems to sit somewhere in the middle.
Of course, it is entirely possible that there is nothing at all to the specific matter at hand. However, unless I've missed something, I, personally have not seen hard evidence to put it to bed yet.
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I agree with your analogy that by exposing the source of the release people in B.C. will see this for what it obviously is.
I remember the health Care firings well and the lies told by our government but ask what became of that?
My opinion is that because of the federal government total lack of competence, or willingness to overlook the obvious, that they are involved in this up to their necks and this opens the door for ALL canadians to see and not have it confined to our province.
Perhaps I am wrong!
My comments on Mr. Farrell's site were not to diminish anyone's concerns, it is obvious there are so many dimensions to this that we are seeing it perhaps from different angles.
It's a good, big picture-focussed, discussion going on over at Norm's place too...
...Here.
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Did former BC Liberal political staffer Spencer Sproule, who now serves as a go-between the province and Petronas..
Did Spencer Sproule himself produce the 2 words in question.."Categorically denied"
all the media who carried the story...not one has those two words as part of a larger statement..
And..
I've talked to Horgan in the past, we specifically discussed Spencer Sproule...
as in Spencer Sproule is a political animal/muckraker..in the same vane as B Zubyk.
Also..one would think that Petronas' Bossman/CEO Wan Zulkiflee Wan Ariffin would be the one to issue a statement, put his name behind it..
A little more...We know something else...Friday past, Rich Coleman said on CKNW radio..Coleman said he called Petronas and got an assurance that the rumors were false..
Petronas has 10,000 thousands of employees, they are a huge company, when Reuters and others reported that according to Petronas insiders, Petronas was shopping their stake in PNW LNG...
Why didn't Petronas on their own make a public statement denying the rumour..
What, it took a phone call from Rich Coleman to Petronas to wake them up?
It doesn't ring true..
BC Liberals are merely running/playing the clock game..trying to keep the fantasy alive until at least May 2017
Interesting question.
Here's another that I'm pretty sure the wizardy concerned is probably asking itself...If, as Sam Cooper of The Province is suggesting, the RE Bubble has popped, what might the resulting economic number shift look like come spring?
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Given that I don't listen regularly during the day...
When did Mr. Coleman make this statement on NW...Was it Friday Sept 30th (i.e. after the Fed approval and the Reuters 'sources say' piece) or the previous Friday, Sept 23rd?
Friday, the noon news..12:00pm..CKNW reported the Reuters' story...further into the noon news Robert Levy comes on to talk the markets(he's a regular market reporter..
Levy talked about the Petronas story, the selling, and how difficult it would be in this market to sell their share...
So..at 12:15 PM Friday the Petronas selling their stake story was alive...
ahh..so I went to the 1:pm newscast on cknw..
And there it was...CKNW reported the story again..only then..
only then did cknw's radio voice say...
paraphrasing here..
"but the province disagrees, according to natural gas minister Rich Coleman...he called Petronas and was reassured the rumours weren't true...." snip
http://www.cknw.com/audio-vault/
So..12:00 pm major news the story was alive and trending..including Robert Levy weighing in
Rich Coleman and the Clarkettes must have been fuming..
by 1:00 pm Friday...Rich Coleman claimed he had made a call to Petronas and was reassured the rumours were false..
Cue Spencer Sproule..
anywho..Still waiting for an official response from someone further up the Petronas food chain..
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Got it Grant.
That squares with what CKWX' Martin MacMahon told me...That he got his denial from the prov gov's NatGas Ministry BEFORE there was any 'official' denial from Petronas.
By the way...still nothing on the Petronas website...Is it Monday morning in Malaysia yet?...
Hang on, let me check...
Why, yes, I believe it is:
7:32 AM Monday, October 3, 2016 (GMT+8)Time in Malaysia
So, I guess we can expect that release to be up on their website any minute now...
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Seems like a growing trend..Alaska's proposed LNG project..$50 billion, big gas, big volume..
Exxon..BC..and the rest of the consortium have bailed...Exxon mobile wants to sell their stake in the project..
http://petroglobalnews.com/2016/09/report-exxonmobil-wont-invest-in-alaska-lng-project-looks-for-exit/
This is literally breaking news...Alaska Guvnor and the state are/have taken over the project...
Guvnor Walker has gone on many recent Asian LNG selling trade missions..
Guvnor Walker is obsessed, like a gold bug, only in his case, an LNG bug..
For those who have followed this Alaska LNG story are aware of...
Walker is acting and sounding desperate, big energy and big energy buyers can see it..
http://www.thecordovatimes.com/2016/09/30/walker-promotes-natural-gas-in-south-korea/
Here is a little more LNG sauce for those golden prosperity geese
Pakistan just signed a 20 year LNG supply deal with Qatar..
Price is rumoured to be $5.50 per MMBTUs
http://www.gulf-times.com/story/515876/Qatargas-Pakistan-in-20-year-LNG-deal
By the way, today (Monday) is a holiday in Malaysia, so no press release from Petronas until at least Tuesday.
A couple relevant comments here:
http://oilpro.com/links/detail/34316/dissecting-spin-behind-royal-visit-to-bc-and-trudeau-governments
Note this from Fitch:
"We expect Petronas to go *free-cash-flow negative* this financial year and next after meeting their capex and dividend requirements," said Fitch senior director Sajal Kishore.
Regarding the piece by Charlie Smith in the GStraight, I know it well.
So...
Based on their cash flow situation, what do you think it would take for Petronas to sell off a significant chunk of PNWLNG?
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Some background info... Petronas was unable to get a loan for USD $7 billion for the Pengerang project in its own back yard in Johor, Malaysia. Petronas. So a nonth or so ago, Petronas riped in financial assistance from Saudi Aramco.
Bear in mind, this Pengerang project was originally supposed to be financed by Petronas cash, and *not* by Petronas taking a loan.
So... If Petronas is currently unable to secure a USD $7 billion lian by itself for an O&G project in its own country, can someone please explain how Petronas expects to secure more than double that anount of loans for a project in Canada?
So, Petronas is stuck between a rock and a hard place. They have already unvested heavily in acquiring O&G assets in Canada for this project.
But they are having a cash crunch. I've been commented for around a year that I don't see oil prices recovering until around 2019, and LNG prices recovering until around 2022. Both due to overproduction.
Petronas can't realistically sell its LNG assets in Canada. Depressed market for the forseeable future. Petronas *definitely* will insist on "saving face" as well.
The only realistic outcome I can see right now is for Petronas to defer this B.C. LNG project for a few years, while it "studies" the 190 conditions attached to the Canadian aporoval.
(Please excuse any typos, I'm just writing this on the fly on my smartphone, and don't know how to edit comments on this forum.)
Since Part 1 of my comment is gone, here is a recap of my thumbnail of Petronas cash reserves:
Aug 2015 : RM 126 billion
Jan 2016 : RM 88 billion
Mar 2016 : RM 62 billion
Here it is again, in rough USD conversion
Aug 2015 : USD 31 billion
Jan 2016 : USD 22 billion
Mar 2016 : USD 15 billion
Also note that Petronas and Saudi Aramco are currently in the process of obtaining a USD 7 billion loan for the Pengerang project in Malaysia.
As I mentioned earlier, I'm impressed with the fact checking by commenters in this thread. Reminds me of the old Usenet days, and the (sadly retired credo) by Anons of "Dox or GTFO".
Lots to consider there.
The thing that many of us are most focussed on here is the short term situation given that we have a provincial election coming up in 2017.
Thus, we believe that was the motivation for the rapid response from prov gov't to the Reuters story.
(and I agree with you about this particular thread)
As for me, I have to shut down for a bit now...Day job work week prep calls...
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I've been saying for about a year, that I don't see global LNG prices recovering until around 2022. Ongoing global overproduction, and new LNG projects still due to finally come on line by 2020.
Simple economics. Global LNG production is increasing roughly 40% in a 3 year time span. I don't see global LNG demand catching up to global LNG supply until after 2020, and a rough equalization of supply and demand around 2022.
After being forced to wait 3 years for Canadian "approval" (with 190 conditions) Petronas should be in no rush to move ahead right now.
A year or so ago, Malaysia was the world's third largest exporter of LNG. This B.C. project was meant to cement Petronas' global status. Shortly, Malaysia will be bumped down to the world's *fifth* largest exporter of LNG.
A few years ago, when LNG prices were skyrocketing, Petronas saw this B.C. project as a long term goose that lays golden eggs.
Now, with LNG prices depressed for the next half decade or so, and with Malaysian government and Petronas cash crunch, the game plan will most likely get delayed.
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2016/09/trudeau-approves-pacific-northwest-lng-pipeline-citing-future-job-growth-disaster-relief-sector/
http://www.lngworldnews.com/fitzgerald-named-progress-energy-ceo-as-culbert-retires/
http://www.lngworldnews.com/petronas-commissions-train-9-at-bintulu-lng-complex/
30 million tons per annum will now come from Bintulu LNG.
Petronas seems rather chatty today...
Nothing, no statement on PNW LNG
http://www.desmog.ca/2016/09/30/did-trudeau-race-approve-lng-project-petronas-wants-sell
http://www.malaysia-chronicle.com/will-najib-rosmah-print-money-to-save-themselves-ringgit-to-hit-5-00-as-petronas-sinks-into-negative-free-cashflow/
The "Oilman" article was mine, and picked up by others.
Bear in mind while Canada has elections in 2017, Malaysia may call for early elections around Q2 2017. Expect soapboxing by politicians in Malaysia as well, as Petronas is a key economic driver in Malaysia.
LNG markets could return to balance by 2021 and spur “second wave” of opportunity: analyst