Thursday, December 9, 2010
Inside the Polling Numbers
Well, I see the fatalistic bunch are now reading tea leaves, tossing bones and resorting to tarot cards to confirm their premonition of burning up in a fiery crash..
It must be true Mr. Ian Reid states, Angus Reid`s poll have confirmed the collapse of NDP support?.
These polls, this latest poll, we had Gordon Campbell resign last month, we had 5 different Liberal leaders throw their hat in the ring in the last 2 weeks, we also had the enevitable resignation of Carole James 3 days ago, the poll was taken yesterday, we also had the media talking about the NDP rift over the last month, last Friday Jenny Kwan delivers the message to Carole, a message from the people, your time is up..
The media hyped up the NDP rift as a blood bath, an emergency Sunday caucus meeting was called, with no resolution the Sunday meeting was cancelled at the 11 hour, Monday morning Carole James(with no grace) announced her resignation, the Province, the Vancouver Sun, cknw, Global, CTV all talked up the spin, the NDP are falling apart, they can`t Govern, knives in the back, the unrepairable division in the socialist camp, so at the same time as the NDP are breaking it to Carole James that she is gone the BC Liberals were parading the contenders around the Province, 4 contenders but everyone knew Christy was coming into the race, Wednesday morning Christy Clark throws her hat in the ring and then there were 5 contenders, Christy`s big radio splash, her CBC interview, her Global interview, not to mention her self promotion on radio over the last month..
So cue Angus Reid, he does a poll after 5 liberals leaders have had their faces splashed all over the Province, Christy Clark profiled on the news the night before this Angus Reid poll, a day after the Carole James resignation, with the mainstream media calling the NDP dead and in disarray, the NDP with no leader, a weekend of bad press and..
And the poll is a dead heat....The NDP with no leader and a party, according to the stooges a party that is in complete meltdown, and with that, is still even with the BC Liberals, with 5 Liberal leaders and more positive air time courtesy of cknw, Global, CTV, CBC....
"I like our chances"
Think about it, I looked at the numbers, both parties about 30%.....The BC Liberals are down 17% odd percentage points since the election, the NDP down about 12%....Where have those voters gone?...Does anyone believe the resignation of Carole James will drive NDPers away, or to the BC Liberals....Not a chance friends, even the hardcore ndp Carole fans won`t vote BC Liberals, they might stay home or vote Green but I don`t think so, I believe the NDP with Carole gone still have their 42% in the bag...
Where has the BC Liberal vote gone?...They aren`t likely to vote ndp, the Conservatives in this poll have also lost support, the Greens are at 14% but we know they won`t get anywhere near that come election day, so what we have friends is the undecided, 30% of the voters are looking for a party..
"I like our Chances"
Michael Smyth had Mario Canseco on his show today between 2:30 pm and 3:00 pm ....Canseco said, the decline in the ndp numbers has nothing to do with the resignation of Carole James but with the resignation of Gordon Campbell, Mario also attributed a little bump for the BC Liberals was the 5 potential leaders parading the Province, Mario went onto say, the NDP will get a bounce when they pick their new leader....So from month to month Angus Reid had the NDP drop 11% points and the Libs up 10% points for a statistical tie..
I could leave my analysis there but let`s dig a little deeper, tarot cards, bone tossing, magic dust, how about common sense, the Angus Reid poll spoke volumes to this persuader....You see friends the poll in conjunction with the Ipsos Reid poll done a few days ago, also asked the respondents to rate the potential leaders and it`s in there where all the goodies preside.
The Ipsos Reid poll and the Angus Reid poll asked about potential leaders and, Christy Clark leads the Ipsos Reid with a 11% positive rating....What Ipsos Reid does is ask two questions on potential leaders, you have positive numbers and negative numbers, one is subtracted from the other, Christy Clark had a 38% positive response among BC Voters and she has a 27% negative rating, for a net score of plus+ 11%......Why is that relevant?
Because in that Ipsos Reid poll George Abbott was second best with a minus1%....Moira Stilwell was minus 8%...De Jong was minus 21%....And Falcon was minus 23%....You can read those numbers here
So those are the numbers, numbers before Christy stated publicly that she is against holding an inquiry into BC Rail....and she also said...That the MLAs should have a free vote in the legislature on the HST......Christy Clark also dodged questions about her ex husband and brother and the BC Rail connection, Christy also wouldn`t commit to running for a MLAship if she doesn`t get the top job(premier or nothing).....So now Christy is already, evasive, dodging questions, partisan attacks on the NDP and she completely goofed for suggesting a free vote on the HST when she can`t vote in the house, her team, the BC Liberals have already voted on the HST, ....Christy is in favour of the HST and wants MLAs to commit suicide by voting for the hst and foregoing the referendum, Christy knows the BC Liberal MLAs can`t change their vote now, that would be admitting they were trying to guzzle the public, we know they were(are) but admitting it is something else all together.
So Christy Clark, a fresh face but already she`s erred, offended the party, looks like an amateur....So her polling numbers would have already started to plunge, especially when the pundits roasted her all day, even Bill Good mocked Christy Clark on the free vote idea(I was shocked!) and just wait until the rat pack corner Christy, they will knock her down a notch or two more...
But the 800 LB elephant in the room is the rat pack`s polling numbers, you could put Coleman`s name there, Donna Barnett, Ida Chong, Hansen, Terry Lake, Pat Pimm, Don McCrae, Eric Foster, every single BC Liberal will have negative ratings where as the ndp....
Will all have positive numbers, the so-called dissidents will be even stronger and have better polling numbers in their own riding`s, they will garner more votes, so whether Christy Clark leads the party or George Abbott, all BC Liberals will be deep in the negative, can the new leader of the BC Liberals make an angry electorate vote for Terry Lake?...Pat Pimm?...Murray Coell? Ron Cantelon?
"I don`t think so"
Every riding was betrayed by lying, gutless, spineless BC Liberal MLAs......And if anyone thinks a little lipstick on the pig will make everyone forget...Their wrong!
The BC Liberals will have a new Campbell clone, the NDP will have an energetic new leader in John Horgan and when the hoopla settles down, when it`s Horgan versus Cluck Cluck or Horgan versus Abbott we will have nothing left but Gordon Campbell`s policies, his agenda, his scandals, his fiscal mismanagement, the cronyism(Ken Dobell lobbied for Cubic who were rewarded with a huge contract today for fare gates, a stupid plan for $200 million dollars that won`t make anyone safer or ever pay for itself).......
BC Rail, the inquiry, Kash Heed, the drunk Jane Thornthwaite, speedy Von Dongen, obfuscator De Jong, Colin ferret face Hansen the hall of fame liar, Kevin Kreuger(missing link, Foghorn Leghorn)....Shirley Bond...Magaret McDiarmid, Mary Polak, expanded gaming, cuts to education, cuts to special needs and the Autistic, BC Rail, Patrick Kinsella, cost over-runs on everything, skyrocketing hydro rates, shadow tolls, deficit lies, when the dust settles the NDP have a new inspiring leader and a clean slate against a tired old bunch of Liberals defending Campbell`s policies with lies and spin.....Lipstick on a pig, no matter who the leader of the BC Liberals is won`t matter, the public, the voter, vegeance will be theirs.
So as for polls, the media have bashed the NDP for a month, they have paraded the BC Liberal contenders all over the province, and airways, and with the NDP in turmoil, no leader, no caucus, no whip, a party who the MSM has been name calling is dead even with the BC Liberals! With 5 new potential leaders, all that airtime, all that promotion, all that Liberal partisan back patting and the leaderless ndp are still even with them ....Hmmm
"I like our Chances"
Every ndp mla will be polling in positive ground, every Liberal will be polling in negative territory...The baggage, Campbell`s policies, habitual liars, huge deficits, education funding, health care, fish farms, seniors care, long term beds, minimum wage, Translink, BC Ferries, Carbon taxes, MSP premiums..etc etc etc...
"I like our Chances"
And so does David Shreck
The Straight Goods
Cheers-Eyes Wide Open