The British Columbia advantage when it comes to LNG exports, our unelected gabby premier Christy Clark has been blathering about out B.C advantage, yet everywhere I look, everything I examine tells me we don`t have an advantage we actually have disadvantages..
This fact may be the catalyst for Clark negotiating all potential provincial profits gone, Christy is in panic mode, her entire election campaign was based on selling a gullible public a fantasy about $trillions flowing to our province in the form of LNG dollars, those $trillions are being negotiated down to scant $millions, and the reason is obvious, Clark needs to show the public progress on LNG export facilities being built, knowing nothing will be built or online before the next election her immediate goal is to con the public that all is well, that carries the sham through the next election and after that, after no big profits accrue she won`t care, her exit strategy will be plotted and torch be passed on to a new false prophet...
I was doing a little globe research and lo n behold I discovered that the LNG facilities in Australia, which are concentrated on or near the Barrow Islands are near 1000 nautical miles closer to Shanghai than is Prince Rupert, a 1000 nautical miles closer to South Korea and about 800 nautical miles closer to Japan...
With modern LNG tankers traveling about 19 knots per hour(in good sea conditions) means Australia shipping is 2 days closer than British Columbia, and considering vessels must come and go, the round trip is 4 days closer, therein Australia LNG can be shipped cheaper, 4 days plus of vessels fuel burning costs as well as staffing costs....
http://www.cmegroup.com/education/files/eiu-japan-china-driving-global-demand-2013-02-28.pdf#page=1&zoom=auto,0,792
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Well, new nuclear facilities that have no waste, efficient, thorium reactors, the same electric producing reactors China is building, and building in numbers..
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"
The liquid fluoride thorium reactor (acronym LFTR; spoken as lifter) is a thermal breeder reactor that uses the thorium fuel cycle in a fluoride-based molten (liquid) salt fuel to achieve high operating temperatures at atmospheric pressure.
The LFTR is a type of thorium molten salt reactor (TMSR). Molten-salt-fueled reactors (MSRs) such as LFTR, where the nuclear fuel itself is in the liquid form of molten salt mixture, should not be confused with solid-fueled molten salt-cooled high temperature reactors (fluoride high-temperature reactors, FHRs).[1]
Molten salt reactors, as a class, can include both burners and
breeders in fast or thermal spectra, using fluoride or chloride
salt-based fuels and a range of fissile or fertile consumables. LFTR
refers to a particular design subset of MSRs defined by use of fluoride
fuel salts and breeding of thorium into uranium-233 in the thermal
spectrum.
In a LFTR, thorium and uranium-233 are dissolved in carrier salts,
forming a liquid fuel. In a typical operation, the liquid fuel salt is
pumped between a critical core and an external heat exchanger where the heat is transferred to a nonradioactive secondary salt. The secondary salt then transfers its heat again to a steam turbine or closed-cycle gas turbine.[2]
This technology was first investigated at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment in the 1960s. It has recently been the subject of a renewed interest worldwide.[3]
Japan, China, the UK, as well as private US, Czech and Australian
companies have expressed intent to develop and commercialize the
technology.
LFTRs are a particular class of molten salt reactor that includes
several design variations. LFTRs differ from other power reactors in
almost every aspect: thorium fuel cycle, low operating pressure, liquid
fuel, salt coolant, higher operating temperature, and online refueling
and reprocessing. The unique characteristics of a LFTR give rise to many
potential advantages and also to a number of design challenges. This
article addresses some LFTR reactor design variations and their
advantages and disadvantages. Power conversion cycles that could be used
to generate electricity with a LFTR are discussed, as well as online
removal of fission products which is an important aspect of LFTRs."
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_fluoride_thorium_reactor
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So basically, the Japanese market is dead, the only way Japn will buy BC LNG is if the price is cheap, very cheap, and therein lies the problem, all that fracking, all that heavy water use, billions of gallons of water injected deep underground, laden with chemicals, so desperate is Christy Clark to get big energy companies to build in BC that she is now giving away the immense profits she campaigned on, ...Before the election Christy Clark claimed LNG taxes and royalties(based on the Australian LNG taxation formula) were going to pay off BC Hydro`s debt, BC Ferries debt, our provincial debt, pay off bridge tolls, fund more money for health and hospitals, education and teachers as well creating a prosperity fund with hundreds of $billions of dollars for future generations..
The BC Government paid for Ernst and Young to throw some fiscal numbers togother based on the Australian taxation model, they also used extensive volumes of exported LNG too, numbers that are unrealistic, this was done pre-election..
http://www.empr.gov.bc.ca/OG/Documents/Ernst%20and%20Young%20-%20LNG%20Revenue.pdf
At that time Christy Clark stated that her taxation model would mimic the Australian model..David Schreck also broke-down some taxation and LNG export volumes too..
http://www.strategicthoughts.com/record2013/LNGsupertax.html
Last week we learned that Christy Clark is in negotiations with energy companies on LNG taxation, or more aptly, Clark is negotiating downward, industry has scoffed at Clark`s taxation model, the numbers Christy Clark talked about pre-election are off the table, off the table in a big way, as in next to nothing in taxation, and even with that industry isn`t jumping up and down to start building in B.C...
http://blogs.wsj.com/canadarealtime/2013/06/14/british-columbia-working-with-industry-on-proposed-lng-taxes/
The Vancouver Sun and BC Government spinners have been milking the Petronas proposal for all its worth, they are spinning, Petronas has no long-term buyers yet, Japex is not a customer, Japex in the Japanese Government who have bought a 10% equity stake in the proposal, customers are equity investors, TransCanada who has been approached to build the pipeline to Prince Rupert from northeast B.C. are not a contractor but a partner in the proposal, in other words, we have the Japan Government wanting a cheap gas deal, we have TransCanada(pipeline company) needing profits, healthy profits to make both new money and pay for a $5 billion dollar pipeline, and we have Petronas, also known as the Malaysian Government, they want super profits too..
That is the catalyst for these desparate negotiations with industry on taxation and royalties, the Australian taxation model is gone..
And more, Japan has supply, China has supply, South Korea has supply, the only way to get market share with these countries, considering we have no shipping advantage over Australia is to lowball the price, lowball any provincial share we might have seen..
I have more very interesting LNG data from The Economist Intelligence Unit, very interesting indeed..
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"LNG in Canada has government support but needs..
huge investment
Companies operating in Canada are also seeking..
to begin LNG exports. Traditionally,
Canada has exported its surplus gas to the US market, but
the shale gas boom in the US is reducing demand for these flows.
Partly because of the original focus on the US market, ...
Canada lacks the infrastructure required to quickly become an LNG exporter.
Canada's gas is found in interior British Columbia and Alberta,...
some distance from the coast...
and with no existing infrastructure linking the sites to ports.
As of February....
Three export projects had been granted licences by Canada's National Energy Board; ..
the latest of these was a licence granted in early February to the LNG Canada Development consortium,...
led by Shell and including PetroChina, Mitsubishi and Korea Gas...
Kitimat LNG, co-owned by the US's Apache and Chevron,...
was granted a licence in 2011,....
while (US/First Nation) BC LNGExport Co-operative received....
one early in 2012. None of these projects, which will target
Asian markets, is likely to come on stream much before 2020.
Once the infrastructure is in place, Canadian gas would....
, in theory, have an advantage over its US counterpart....
(assuming that US gas will be exported from the US east coast)....
, as shipping times would be shorter.....
However, the price of Canadian LNG is expected to be oil-indexed..
, and the costs involved in building the terminals and infrastructure will be hug.
Given that there could be additional costs associated...
with allaying environmental and First Nation concerns....
about the projects,....
it remains to be seen whether Canadian LNG will be....
price competitive compared with US LNG."
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So here we have our unelected premier offering up,..
I mean giving away taxation and royalties to industry as a sop..
so they will build, and build fast,...
but that creates a another problem,....
these LNG plants proposed for British Columbia won`t be built here..
at all, they will be built in South Korea in modular form,....
barged to either Kitimat or Prince Rupert and put together ...
like a big jigsaw puzzle, .....
Nothing for these plants will be manufactured in British Columbia,..
well..
So maybe you think these LNG plants will employ thousands...
and B.C. will reap large on income taxes,...
you would be wrong,...
as the BG(British Gas) group said earlier this year, ...
the modules will be built in Asia, barged to B.C....
and assembled,....
once up and running the most massive of all the proposals,..
according to the BG group will employ...
a mere 250 plant employees...
with perhaps another 250 spinoff jobs throughout the province..
Meaning even if 4 LNG plants were built(the big ones)..
employment would number roughly 1000 employees ..
with about 1000 spinoff jobs..
I was already initially skeptical, and I`m not talking about temporary
construction jobs, we are talking about the facilities get built, they
are in operation, how many workers will they employ?..Because the BC
Liberal 2013 election platform is quite specific... And I quote..
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"
LNG facilities are currently proposed by business groups that
include some of the world`s biggest energy companies-Shell, Imperial,
Chevron, British Gas, Petronas, SK & and ES of South Korea, Inpex
and the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation, to name some of the
major players, it`s no fantasy.
The projects mean 39,000 jobs to British Columbia during
construction with another 75,000 full time jobs created once in
operation. We can create 1 $trillion dollars in economic activity and create the BC Prosperity fund with $100 billion over 30 years.
An opportunity this good faces lots of global competition. Premier
Christy Clark and Today`s BC Liberals have worked diligently to enable
LNG as an economic generator for decades to come."
(BC Liberal platform at below link)
http://files.flipsnack.com/iframe/embed.html?hash=fhcjsxtd&wmode=window&bgcolor=EEEEEE&t=13660594461366059618
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There is the
smoking gun evidence, from the BC Liberal platform...39,000 construction jobs and 75,00 full-time jobs once in operation..
That whole number thing seems backwards from the git-go, normally there
are more during construction jobs than the full time after everything is
built job numbers....
Do you see those job numbers in the BC Liberal election platform...
"39,000 jobs to British Columbia during construction with another 75,000 full time jobs created once in operation"
How many LNG plants are being proposed, we have heard these Liberals say 4 LNG plants, 6 LNG plants, 8 LNG plants...
Well, there was an article in the Vancouver Sun earlier this year, the BG
Group(British Gas) announced they are going to the planning stage,
then if that goes well they will
apply
for an environmental assessment, no they haven`t made any firm
commitments, it`s still very early in the process, they mention
something about, if everything goes well they will start assembly of
their LNG plant in 2016
..
But what is absolutely startling is the honesty in the article, honesty from a major world class energy company..
What British Gas has stated in the article is this...
________
"The BG Group has filed plans for a liquefied natural gas plant at Prince
Rupert that would consume the equivalent to all of the province’s
current production of natural gas and almost all the energy generated by
BC Hydro’s proposed Site C dam to produce it."
_____
Do you see that? This one LNG plant will consume all the present natural
gas production in British Columbia, that`s not the scary part, what is
stated in the article puts "
Christy Clark and Today`s BC Liberal`s" jobs number to shame, this article makes a complete mockery of what the Liberals are stating in their 2013 election platform..
___________
"
BG intends to build a facility on Ridley Island capable of producing
21 million tonnes of LNG a year. Called Prince Rupert LNG, it would be
built overseas in modules and shipped to Prince Rupert for assembly.
Even so, the plant would create 3,500 jobs during construction,
250
permanent direct jobs and another 250 spinoff jobs.
BG says it is
planning to build it in two phases, beginning in 2016.
The first phase — two seven-million-tonne-a-year processing units, or trains — is to be completed by 2021"
________
Do you see that?....3500 temporary construction jobs, 250 full-time jobs with 250 full-time spinoff jobs...
Well well well, let`s take the 6 LNG export plants scenario, first off,
the plants are built in Asia, shipped here and assembled, that`s a
problem, but the bigger problem is the job numbers..This British Gas
project is a biggy, so big it will not only take all our present natural
gas production it will also require all the power generated by the
proposed $12 billion dollar public taxpayer project known as Site C
Dam..
______
"The scope of the project is huge: All three trains would consume about
3.3 billion cubic feet of gas a day, which is the equivalent of B.C.’s
current natural gas production. The plant will require 800 megawatts of
energy to run refrigeration compressors and to run the facility. By
comparison, the Site C dam would produce 900 megawatts"
__________
The British Columbia advantage is industry`s advantage, Christy Clark has gone cap in hand begging for a LNG build before 2017...She is giving away the farm, the Australian LNG taxation model is gone, Christy isn`t negotiating up but down...
Her LNG windfall claims was a lie, the employment numbers associated with LNG is a lie, the future market growth forecasts are a lie...
In 2011 and 2012 combined British Columbia made less than $400 million dollars on natural gas, these big energy companies want free hydro-electric and cut-rate royalty rates..
Whatever gets announced, whatever goes forward who knows, there is only one thing I am sure of...
Taxation schemes, royalty schemes for energy companies dealing with British Columbia will be a secret, no prying public eyes will be allowed to see the details, it will be called proprietary concerns, and will be shrouded in cabinet secrecy..
Remember, we paid $12 million dollars for a fake Bollywood award show, I wonder how much this illusion will cost us..
The Straight Goods
Cheers Eyes Wide Open