The Old Numbers Game

Here comes the Talking Heads, you know when I wrote that it dawned on me that perhaps, just perhaps that I too am a talking head, the pundits, profilers, predictors, Ipsos, Mustel, Nanos and others, the more these companies predict the more I`m convinced the one and only goal of polling companies is to supply data designed to incite more confirming polls, and propaganda, the last 2 BC Elections the pollsters had the BC Liberals with insurmountable leads, at least that`s what the pollsters want the public to believe, a foregone conclusion, in other words, if you are a NDP voter stay home...Yet the results despite Canwest Global and the media pimping the BC Liberals are very very close...In other words, pollsters are but party spokespeople, the numbers can be turned on their head with the flip of a switch, ....

Christy Clark was quick to the airways today with new internal polling numbers, coincidentally the poll numbers came out the same time she was being interviewed by Bill Good......According to Christy`s people she is north of 40% on first ballots, in other words Clark is letting it be known to the others that she is close to the big chair, with those numbers Clark wouldn`t need many second ballot votes to get over the top, but with the new 100 points for each riding makes predicting far from a science, however...

One thing I learned very early on was whether in business, sports, personal achievements, never get too cocky, when in the lead stay quiet and say nothing, you don`t want your star quarterback predicting a blowout of their opponent and for me, it looks bad when a politician like Christy blasts the airwaves with internal polling telling her competitors she is the anointed one, and also today, Mike De Jongs backers, Cheema and company made the airwaves by saying that De Jong supporters second preference on their ballot was going to George Abbott.....

One of our regular contributers sent me information about 1000s of Green voters who joined the BC Liberal party and apparently there was a sophisticated campaign ran by enviro  groups asking their members to join the BC Liberal party and vote for the greenest candidate who is against destroying Fish Lake and against the Enbridge pipeline, in other words an attempt at blackmail, I responded back to my friend that the Greenies were being silly if they think they can negotiate with the corporate BC Liberal party, even if a Liberal leader promised something green the chances of it coming to fruition is very slim and rumour has it BC Liberals tend to lie(snark).....

Before we move on, if Christy Clark had this big north of 40% lead over everyone(Even though she has no party or business support)....Why would her team crow and appear cocky?...Why indeed, why would Cheema who is Mike De Jong`s Asian power broker....A man who has signed up 1000s for De Jong...Why would he tell the press his second choice votes are going to Abbott?

Why tip your hand?...Why forecast your next move at all, unless, unless it`s a bluff, here`s the scenario...By De Jong`s backers claiming second choices are going to go to Abbott, where does the Falcon second choice ballots go, they certainly wouldn`t want them too going to Abbott....But with de Jong out after round 1....Who does Christy Clark`s second choice ballots go ?....If De Jong`s ballots go to Abbott...Falcon second ballots won`t go to Christy Clark, especially after Clark`s team announced their poll numbers...

So what we have is De Jong almost conceding he`s gone, the power behind De Jong made the airwaves claiming second choices are going Abbott.......Abbott voter`s second choice will not go to Christy Clark, again because of the bragging Cluck Cluck was doing today....So where do Abbott second choices go, with De Jong going out....Abbott`s second ballot choices will go to Falcon...But....If Cheema is lying?....If De Jong`s people are actually going to support Falcon with their second choice ballots?.... Abbots second choice ballots go Falcon too..And if  De Jong`s second choice ballot go Falcon too?....And if Christy Clark`s second choice ballots all go to De Jong(That`s a lot of second ballot votes).

Back to the numbers game, it`s rumoured the Green environmentalists signed up 10,000 members, 10,000 BC Liberal green voters, and I know for fact that 1000`s of NDPers have joined the BC Liberals....So as to the polling, we have 10,000 green voters and another several thousand NDPers who either have been polled and or asked who their voting for, but are their answers honest?

Who are the Green voters going to vote for, well every BC Liberal leader has shunned the enviros and promoted both Prosperity mine and Enbridge pipeline....The NDP stand on those issues is by far, A STARK DIFFERENCE...

So what we have are about 15,000 sabotage voters registered to the BC Liberal party all with a completely different motive than the remaining registered BC Liberals, my gut tells me that the Green voters and NDP voters whom joined the BC Liberal party will be voting for Falcon as first choice and Abbott on their second ballot.....And this has nothing to do with anything but strategy, Kevin Falcon, the man just brings out negative feelings, he would be the easiest for the NDP to beat, Falcon polls negative even among BC Liberal insiders...

The old numbers game, Christy Clark`s team erred today by revealing those numbers, self confident it was not, it came across cocky, 20% of the BC Liberal membership are not Liberal voters, their saboteurs, 1 in 5 votes will be strategic votes.

I`ll stick with my earlier assessment, I don`t believe Cheema and the De Jong team, my sources tell me those votes are going to Falcon....The ploy was designed to have Abbott second choices to go Falcon or De Jong....And where do Clark second choice ballots go?.....We could have a situation where De Jong gets all the second votes, Votes from the Clark team, Votes from the Abbott team, and Falcon, everyone might vote for De Jong for their second choice, with everyone not wanting to hurt their candidate`s chances could bring all the second choice ballots to the perceived weakest candidate of the 4.....

Now toss in 15,000 sabotage voters and anything goes.....My gut tells me the Cheema press release and the Clark press release are designed to intimidate others into defensive moves, don`t believe a word of it....

The main reason why I think Falcon will prevail, what big business wants, big business gets, Big Business wants Falcon....

Remember BC Liberals...."One in the hand is worth two in the bush"

The Straight Goods

Cheers-Eyes Wide Open