About Me-email is... grant.go@aol.com

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garden bay, west coast, Canada
persistent digging,never say never

Monday, February 21, 2011

The Old Numbers Game

Here comes the Talking Heads, you know when I wrote that it dawned on me that perhaps, just perhaps that I too am a talking head, the pundits, profilers, predictors, Ipsos, Mustel, Nanos and others, the more these companies predict the more I`m convinced the one and only goal of polling companies is to supply data designed to incite more confirming polls, and propaganda, the last 2 BC Elections the pollsters had the BC Liberals with insurmountable leads, at least that`s what the pollsters want the public to believe, a foregone conclusion, in other words, if you are a NDP voter stay home...Yet the results despite Canwest Global and the media pimping the BC Liberals are very very close...In other words, pollsters are but party spokespeople, the numbers can be turned on their head with the flip of a switch, ....

Christy Clark was quick to the airways today with new internal polling numbers, coincidentally the poll numbers came out the same time she was being interviewed by Bill Good......According to Christy`s people she is north of 40% on first ballots, in other words Clark is letting it be known to the others that she is close to the big chair, with those numbers Clark wouldn`t need many second ballot votes to get over the top, but with the new 100 points for each riding makes predicting far from a science, however...

One thing I learned very early on was whether in business, sports, personal achievements, never get too cocky, when in the lead stay quiet and say nothing, you don`t want your star quarterback predicting a blowout of their opponent and for me, it looks bad when a politician like Christy blasts the airwaves with internal polling telling her competitors she is the anointed one, and also today, Mike De Jongs backers, Cheema and company made the airwaves by saying that De Jong supporters second preference on their ballot was going to George Abbott.....

One of our regular contributers sent me information about 1000s of Green voters who joined the BC Liberal party and apparently there was a sophisticated campaign ran by enviro  groups asking their members to join the BC Liberal party and vote for the greenest candidate who is against destroying Fish Lake and against the Enbridge pipeline, in other words an attempt at blackmail, I responded back to my friend that the Greenies were being silly if they think they can negotiate with the corporate BC Liberal party, even if a Liberal leader promised something green the chances of it coming to fruition is very slim and rumour has it BC Liberals tend to lie(snark).....

Before we move on, if Christy Clark had this big north of 40% lead over everyone(Even though she has no party or business support)....Why would her team crow and appear cocky?...Why indeed, why would Cheema who is Mike De Jong`s Asian power broker....A man who has signed up 1000s for De Jong...Why would he tell the press his second choice votes are going to Abbott?

Why tip your hand?...Why forecast your next move at all, unless, unless it`s a bluff, here`s the scenario...By De Jong`s backers claiming second choices are going to go to Abbott, where does the Falcon second choice ballots go, they certainly wouldn`t want them too going to Abbott....But with de Jong out after round 1....Who does Christy Clark`s second choice ballots go ?....If De Jong`s ballots go to Abbott...Falcon second ballots won`t go to Christy Clark, especially after Clark`s team announced their poll numbers...

So what we have is De Jong almost conceding he`s gone, the power behind De Jong made the airwaves claiming second choices are going Abbott.......Abbott voter`s second choice will not go to Christy Clark, again because of the bragging Cluck Cluck was doing today....So where do Abbott second choices go, with De Jong going out....Abbott`s second ballot choices will go to Falcon...But....If Cheema is lying?....If De Jong`s people are actually going to support Falcon with their second choice ballots?.... Abbots second choice ballots go Falcon too..And if  De Jong`s second choice ballot go Falcon too?....And if Christy Clark`s second choice ballots all go to De Jong(That`s a lot of second ballot votes).

Back to the numbers game, it`s rumoured the Green environmentalists signed up 10,000 members, 10,000 BC Liberal green voters, and I know for fact that 1000`s of NDPers have joined the BC Liberals....So as to the polling, we have 10,000 green voters and another several thousand NDPers who either have been polled and or asked who their voting for, but are their answers honest?

Who are the Green voters going to vote for, well every BC Liberal leader has shunned the enviros and promoted both Prosperity mine and Enbridge pipeline....The NDP stand on those issues is by far, A STARK DIFFERENCE...

So what we have are about 15,000 sabotage voters registered to the BC Liberal party all with a completely different motive than the remaining registered BC Liberals, my gut tells me that the Green voters and NDP voters whom joined the BC Liberal party will be voting for Falcon as first choice and Abbott on their second ballot.....And this has nothing to do with anything but strategy, Kevin Falcon, the man just brings out negative feelings, he would be the easiest for the NDP to beat, Falcon polls negative even among BC Liberal insiders...

The old numbers game, Christy Clark`s team erred today by revealing those numbers, self confident it was not, it came across cocky, 20% of the BC Liberal membership are not Liberal voters, their saboteurs, 1 in 5 votes will be strategic votes.

I`ll stick with my earlier assessment, I don`t believe Cheema and the De Jong team, my sources tell me those votes are going to Falcon....The ploy was designed to have Abbott second choices to go Falcon or De Jong....And where do Clark second choice ballots go?.....We could have a situation where De Jong gets all the second votes, Votes from the Clark team, Votes from the Abbott team, and Falcon, everyone might vote for De Jong for their second choice, with everyone not wanting to hurt their candidate`s chances could bring all the second choice ballots to the perceived weakest candidate of the 4.....

Now toss in 15,000 sabotage voters and anything goes.....My gut tells me the Cheema press release and the Clark press release are designed to intimidate others into defensive moves, don`t believe a word of it....

The main reason why I think Falcon will prevail, what big business wants, big business gets, Big Business wants Falcon....

Remember BC Liberals...."One in the hand is worth two in the bush"

The Straight Goods

Cheers-Eyes Wide Open

11 comments:

Crankypants said...

When the BC Liberal Party accepted this weighted voting system and stipulated that each voter's choice will only count if the voter ranks two or more candidates, many of the party members were quoted as being extremely unhappy with the requirement that they have to select at least two candidates.

So, first of all you have a bunch of disgruntled members that are pissed off that they have to vote for someone besides the candidate they prefer. Remember this part of the voting system passed with a relatively small margin, unlike the weighted system. It also seems to be a foregone conclusion that Mike deJong is likely to be the low man on the totem pole after round one. His second place votes will be spread amongst Abbott, Clark and Falcon. If none of the three gets the required number of votes to determine a winner, it could get very interesting, and possibly embarassing for the party. What if the majority of the voters that chose Abbott, Clark or Falcon as their first choice decided to name deJong as their second choice, so as to not hinder their preferred candidate's chances, and declined to make a third and fourth choice? By my calculations, there is a possibility that none of the candidates could reach the magic number to claim victory. It most likely will not happen, but there is the potential. Would they then have to hold another vote? Would they declare the candidate with the most points the victor even though no one met the threshhold or fudge the results to make it look as if the system worked as designed? And most important of all, how would they spin the fact that they came up with a flawed system to choose BC's next Premier?

This Saturday could well provide a skit worthy of Saturday Night Live.

Cam

Anonymous said...

Or, Monty Python's Flying Circus !

Elwood said...

Grant said: I know for fact that 1000`s of NDPers have joined the BC Liberals"
------------------------------------

These people should all be publicly outed as traitors to BC and the NDP!

Grant G said...

Elwood...NDPers have joined the BC Liberal party to sabotage the leadership vote...They haven`t joined as BC Liberal fans..Same as the 1000s of environmentalists, they didn`t join for any reason but for blackmail..

Think outside the box...Myself, I haven`t decided which BC Liberal I will vote for!

I`m leaning towards Falcon()I have my reasons)

Cheers

seth said...

Once again you want the fascist Falcon pig as premier for three more years rather than take a flyer on the progressive Abbot. All those other green and NDP voters that joined the party are supporting Abbot.

Abbots second choice votes will obviously go to Clark just to get rid of the Fascists.

This question has been asked often I suppose but given the massive destruction Falcon will visit on the province for the next three years.

Are you out of your mind!!!!

Grant G said...

Am I Crazy Seth?....You betcha, Crazy like a FOX!

Abbotts second choices are going to Falcon or De Jong...

The scariest option is a Christy Clark Government...And the next election is in 27 months, not three years.....

I want the beatable candidate leading the BC Liberals...That my friend is Falcon...

And Seth...Didn`t you attempt in the past...At least I heard you muse about it many times...

You talked of mass BC Liberal sign ups to take over the Liberal party..

That`s what I`m talking about....

Grant G said...

One more thing Seth....

Check out this article...


http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Election-Central/2011/02/22/AbbottDonors/

You will see that your man Abbott has taken political donations for his campaign from...

Ecana Gas..Aquilinni..And IPPS..In particu;ar Finavera has donated to George Abbott

Finavera ...You know all about them Seth...Pirate power crooks!!!!

Yet for some strange reason you Seth think that Abbott is pure!...

Your right, Abbott is pure alright..

Abbott is pure bullshit and is in the arms of Pirate IPPs..

Good Day Seth!...Sheesh!

jaydee said...

Not to worry the vote is rigged. The corporate regime have picked Cluck Cluck...the women like her, why, I have no idea and neither do they. The regime can order the bully to ACT all nice and warm and fuzzy. Dress her up in her baby pink, don't know if that is any better than black and blue, I'm sure she never changes her clothes. That will be difficult for the loud mouth but she will follow orders and if that doesn't work so good the corporate regime will order a provincial election sooner rather than later....also rigged.
People, keep your eye on the ball. It really doesn't matter who the regime picks, they will simply follow orders from....the regime.

REVOLT NOW....

GO HORGAN GO!

Anonymous said...

All of the candidates are contaminated by Campbell. I see none of them any different than he is. We will just trade one tyrant for another. Campbell's corrupt sale of the BCR, is the most sleazy, corrupt event in Canadian history. All the big smiles and saying, we are exonerated?? Exonerated my ass, they still stink. Campbell will still be bossing the job. So, don't look for anything better from the winning candidate, it ain't going to happen.

Anonymous said...

One thing we don't have that the financially abused Egyptians have is starvation. We still have food banks. The Solidarity protests against the Socreds in the eighties that were settled in Bill Bennet's Kelowna kitchen because of Union Jack's sellout of us will never happen again.

seth said...

Like Horgan going along to get along with the odious Carole James and the scum that were her advisers, Abbot had to do the same. Ya gotta pretend to be a team player or you'll get nowhere these days.

Trudeau did the same - a rabid socialist pretending to be kinda conservative till he got control then put the hammer down.

Who knows how Abbot will turn out but he is by far the best of a bad lot.

Yah I did recommend progressives try a take back of the BCLiberal party. Looks like that effort is underway.

You should read Mein Kampf before espousing the Falcon alternative then think Falcon instead of Eagle.