About Me-email is... grant.go@aol.com

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garden bay, west coast, Canada
persistent digging,never say never

Friday, May 10, 2013

Powell River Persuader Crunches The Numbers(Fun With Polling)


Written by Grant G

I know many of you have been fretting over the polls, time to put your minds at ease.....Let`s talk election 2013 riding results as predicted by yours truly .....The Powell River Persuader.

David Schreck has been keeping a brave face, he has however continued to claim the election is razor thin, classic electioneering, never come across to cocky even when you know..

4 polls released today(so far) with Angus Reid releasing his last pre-election poll on CTV at 6:00 p.m....

 http://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-ndp-widens-lead-days-before-election-poll-1.1276886

Angus Reid is reporting NDP at 45%...Libs 36%...Link to come

We have an Ipsos Reid poll...NDP 43%..Libs 37%

 http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6111

Forum poll....BC NDP 43%...Libs 41%

 http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/05/10/b-c-election-poll/


Hill + Knowlton poll..BC NDP 41%...Libs 34%

 http://hkstrategies.ca/wp-content/uploads/BC-Perspectives-Panel.pdf

Justason poll....BC NDP 45%....Libs 31%

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=3502

___________

First off, disregard the forum poll, the commentary released with the National Post poll proves they are clueless, the spokesperson made the hilarious claim that if...

"If the poll data holds up on election day, the Liberals could clinch a “razor-thin” majority, beating out the NDP by a single seat in the provincial legislature.
The poll projects that the current premier’s party would take 43 seats in the 85-seat house compared to 41 seats for the NDP. These results represent a shift from last week’s projections, which saw the NDP win 44 seats and the Liberals 39."

First off, any party that has even a 2 point lead will have a minimum of a 10 seat majority...National Post and Forum are spinning, in fact the last Forum poll was discredited for a reason, they stacked their poll with Conservative and Liberal voters, they phoned rightwing ridings on a 2-1 margin over leftwing or swing ridings..

 http://thetyee.ca/Mediacheck/2013/05/06/BC-Election-Polls/

What you are witnessing people is a hard corporate media game of low-information manipulation..

Of all the polls above the Justason poll is most accurate...

Let`s go through my riding predictions...

__________
 Abbotsford-Mission..... BC Liberal

Abbotsford South......Independent ..Van Dongen will win this riding

 Abbotsford West......NDP will come up the middle here..Thanks Moe Gill

Alberni-Pacific Rim...Solid NDP

Boundary-Similkameen....NDP?Liberal..Toss-up

Burnaby-Deer Lake....NDP in a rout...As all 4 Burnaby ridings will go big Orange Star.

Burnaby-Edmonds...NDP

Burnaby-Lougheed...NDP

Burnaby North.........NDP

Cariboo-Chilcotin....NDP

Cariboo North......Independent Bob Simpson win win this.

Chilliwack...........????....NDP might pull this one out...Buy BC is going over well..Still a toss-up.

Chilliwack-Hope....NDP Gwen O`mahoney will indeed hang onto this riding..

Columbia River-Revelstoke....NDP easy win

Comox Valley....NDP with a solid win..Adios Don Mcrae, go back to school.

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain....This will be close, I`m leaning NDP


Coquitlam-Maillardville.....NDP easy win

Cowichan Valley.....Easy NDP win

Delta North.............Easy NDP win

Delta South.....Independent Vicki Huntington wins easy

Esquimalt-Royal Roads....NDP rout

Fort Langley-Aldergrove....Libs Rich Coleman survives, he will quit the Leg within a year

Fraser-Nicola.....Soild NDP

Juan de Fuca.....NDP John Horgan in a cake walk

Kamloops-North Thompson...NDP...Terry Lake is toast,

Kamloops-South Thompson...Toss up...Leaning Lib

Kelowna-Lake Country.....Libs

Kelowna-Mission.....Toss up...NDP might come up the middle

Kootenay East.......Racist Bill Bennett survives, not sure how..Long arms dragging on the pavementville.

Kootenay West....NDP easy win.

Langley.....Libs..Mary Polak will win


Maple Ridge-Mission.....NDP big


Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows...NDP


Nanaimo......NDP Krog wins

Nanaimo-North Cowichan...Another easy NDP win


Nechako Lakes....Toss up leaning Lib

Nelson-Creston....Michelle wins easy for NDP

New Westminster----NDP..All over but the counting

North Coast....NDP easy win

North Island.....NDP hold

North Vancouver-Lonsdale..Toss up leaning Lib


North Vancouver-Seymour.....NDP


Oak Bay-Gordon Head....NDP


Parksville-Qualicum......NDP


Peace River North........Independent


Peace River South.......NDP


Penticton.....................Lib


Port Coquitlam....NDP easy win


Port Moody-Coquitlam.....NDP big


Powell River-Sunshine Coast.....NDP, in da bank


Prince George-Mackenzie.....Toss up..Leaning NDP

Prince George-Valemount.....NDP

Richmond Centre..............Libs

Richmond East........Libs


Richmond-Steveston...Libs


Saanich North and the Islands...NDP


Saanich South.........NDP


Shuswap.................Libs


Skeena.....NDP


Stikine....NDP


Surrey-Cloverdale.....Toss up..leaning Libs


Surrey-Fleetwood.....NDP


Surrey-Green Timbers...NDP


Surrey-Newton......NDP


Surrey-Panorama...Libs


Surrey-Tynehead...NDP

Surrey-Whalley....NDP


Surrey-White Rock....Libs


Vancouver-Fairview....NDP


Vancouver-False Creek....NDP


Vancouver-Fraserview....NDP


Vancouver-Hastings......NDP


Vancouver-Kensington..NDP


Vancouver-Kingsway....Easy NDP win


Vancouver-Langara.....Libs


Vancouver-Mount Pleasant...NDP rout


Vancouver-Point Grey.....NDP


Vancouver-Quilchena....Libs


Vancouver-West End.....NDP


Vernon-Monashee........Toss up, leaning NDP


Victoria-Beacon Hill.....Carole James will win..NDP


Victoria-Swan Lake.....NDP


West Vancouver-Capilano....Libs


West Vancouver-Sea to Sky....Libs


Westside-Kelowna....Libs


_______________

18 BC Liberal seats..


4 independent seats


NDP...63 seats..






Our future and the horizon is looking very bright indeed...



The Straight Goods


Cheers Eyes Wide Open






6 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the reassurance, needed that!
I was up late reading the John Doyle report until 2pm. It was a long report, but very interesting. The man is just brilliant!

This a.m. nowhere could I find the report!! Did the Libs block it?
The people of B.C. need to read this. It's the truth and reported without bias, as the newspapers should be doing.
I should have copied it, next time, if there is a next time, I will copy first then read..

Why block it? Are they that scared it would reduce their votes.
The truth will out, I believe in that. B.C. has waited too long....

Bye-bye Christi Clark(e)

Anonymous said...

The National Post is a pathetic right wing rag...after all it was created by convicted crook Conrad Black. They are doing the same thing with Dix that they have been trying to do to Justin Trudeau. They are faling miserably on both counts. Clueless Christy is toast and King Stephen is next in 2015.
Great work Grant in pointing out the pathetic MSM in this country.

Anonymous said...

Classic example of how big media plays their silly games is the headline on Globe and Mail. It says " BC NDP widens lead, BUT only just" what the hell is that supposed to mean? When the Libs narrow things they dont say " BC Liberals tighten race, BUT only just"...it becomes "neck and neck". You just want to throw up when you see the Media trying to manipulate elections to go their way. I swear to God if they thought they could get away with it they would start stuffing ballot boxes.

Grant G said...

Angus Reid, and Ipsos reid are hanging their reputations on these last polls..They want bragging rights, believe me, it isn`t even close..

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/bcvotes2009/story/2009/05/08/bc-angus-reid-election-poll.html

Angus Reid`s last poll going into the 2009 bc election..

Angus Reid`s numbers were(in above link)just days before the 2009 election.

BC NDP..42%

BC Liberals..44%


Actual final voting percentages from 2009..

BC NDP 42%..

BC Liberals..45%


Cheers

Anonymous said...

When the BC Liberals are afraid they won't win, they cheat.

Campbell twice lied and cheated to win his elections. 1.The BCR wasn't for sale. 2.The HST wasn't on his radar either. That's only a drop in a rain barrel, for Campbell's treachery.

Nor do we forget Harper's part, in the destruction of BC. The BC Liberals, work for Harper.

The Campbell/Clark BC Liberals, have been a party from hell.

I feel comfortable with Adrian Dix. You have no idea what that means to many, of we weary BC citizens.

Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen the post on, The Common Sense Canadian? That tells the truth on, Christy's true position of her views, on the Enbridge pipeline. As usual, Christy has lied her face off, to the people of this Province.