About Me-email is... grant.go@aol.com

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garden bay, west coast, Canada
persistent digging,never say never

Friday, May 3, 2013

Christy Clark Liberals, Out Of Gas(updated)


Time to put an end to the polling spin zone...

2005 election results, vote percentages..

BC Liberals.....45.8%

BC NDP...........41.5%

2009 election results, vote percentages..

BC Liberals....45.82%

BC NDP..........42.15%

_____________________

Inside the latest numbers, The latest Angus Reid poll has the NDP at 41%...BC Liberals at 34%...

The NDP won`t slide any further, and personally I don`t believe they are below 45%...As you can see from the last two general elections the BC NDP base is 42%...Are we to believe with all the scandals under the BC Liberals that the NDP hasn`t risen a bit?

Check out the chart on page 5 of this PDF...

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/2013.05.03_Politics_BC.pdf

Page 5 is a graph, it has the NDP line going down and the Liberal line going up...

However, as stated just above, the latest poll has already pushed the NDP support down to their historical levels..In other words, the only way for the BC Liberal line to keep climbing is for the Green party and the BC Conservatives party to collapse, let`s take the Green party, even if their vote collapses it won`t go for the pro-pipeline parties, that being John Cummins and Christy Clark..

We also have many independents running too, Vicki Huntington, Van Dongen, Bob Simpson, a popular guy up in the peace, Van Ryswyk and three former BC Conservatives, and we have a myriad of fringe party candidates...In other words, with the NDP at 45%, Green party at even 10%, BC Conservatives at 8%..Independents and fringe at 3%..That totals 66%...That only leaves 34% of the electorate for the BC Liberals...

___________

Let`s examine the inside numbers from Angus Reid..

Metro Vancouver

NDP...........45%

Lib.............35%

Green.........7%

Cons.........10%

Ind/other...3%
__________

Vancouver island

NDP........44%

Lib..........28%

Green......21%

Cons........6%

Ind/other..2%
______________

Interior

NDP..........29%

Lib............42%

Green........10%

Cons.........14%

Ind/other/ ,5%

__________

North

NDP..........52%

Lib............31%

Green........11%

Cons..........4%

Ind/other....2%

______________

Gender gap...Men

NDP 40%....Libs 33%

Gender gap female

NDP 43%...Libs 35%

______

Do you approve or disapprove of Christy Clark and the BC Liberals

Approve..34%...Disapprove...57%

_______
It is time for a change in
government in British
Columbia
a different
provincial party should be
elected into power....
55% say yes, time for change.

It is not time for a change
in government in British
Columbia
the BC Liberals
should be re
-
elected
27% say the BC Liberals should be elected
_____________
The interior seems to be the only section out of whack in this latest poll, however, it`s not riding rich...

The numbers that stand out for me is the number that believe it`s time for change, 55%, with a mere 27% say re-elect the Liberals...

I don`t know where the Liberals find more votes, the NDP won`t fall below 42% , and I suspect they are actually at 45%...Greens voters won`t switch to the Liberals, in fact if the polls tighten up expect a decline in the Green vote and a swing to the NDP, as only the NDP are against pipelines..The Green vote is a safe vote until the polls tighten up, if Green voters are concerned about tankers and pipelines, if the polls are tightening the Greens will be forced to go NDP, what`s the point of voting Green if the BC Liberals end up winning.

Anyway, have a good look inside the Angus Reid detailed tables,


http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/2013.05.03_Politics_BC.pdf

 http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/2013.04.26_Politics_BC.pdf


And to drive my point home, the big comparison..

From the April 26th Angus Reid poll



Let`s examine the inside numbers from Angus Reid(April 26th)-to May 1st-2nd

Metro Vancouver

NDP...........46%...May 1.....45%

Lib.............31%..................35%

Green.........11%..................7%

Cons............7%...................10%

Ind/other.......4%..................3%


As you can see, very little movement in Metro-Vancouver

_________


Vancouver island...April 26th Angus Reid poll to May 1-2 Angus Reid poll

NDP........45%......May 1.....NDP....44%

Lib..........25%.................................28%

Green......19%................................21%

Cons........8%..................................6%

Ind/other..3%..................................2%

Again, Vancouver island has barely nudged.

____________
Angus Reid poll, April 26th to Angus Reid poll May 1st-2nd


Interior

NDP.......41%.......May 1..........NDP..........29%

Lib........35%.............................LIB...........42%

Green....10%.............................Green........10%

Cons......11%.............................Cons.........14%

Ind/other/ 3%...........................Ind/Other.....5%

 Here, it`s only in the interior where the numbers have moved, a 20% swing in 1 week, that my friends has skewed the numbers big time..
_________
Angus Reid poll for April 26th to Angus Reid poll for May 1-2

North

NDP.......54%..........May 1.......NDP............52%

Lib.........22%..............................Lib............31%

Green.....4%...........  ...................Green........11%

Cons.......15%.............................Cons..........4%

Ind/other..4%..............................Ind/other....2%

As you can see, the NDP numbers have barely moved.

Meaning this, for the gender gap vote to have collapsed, it was all in the interior, Socred land, Alberta retiree land., Vancouver Island, NDP and Green vote and independent vote combined is 67%...That leaves 33% for BC Liberals and BC Cons.

Metro Vancouver NDP vote, Green vote and independent combined is 55%..That leaves 45% for BC Cons and BC Liberals to fight over, that`s less than half the pie..

Up North, if you combine the NDP, Greens and independent that totals 65%, again, that leaves 35% for the BC Liberals and the BC Cons to fight over.

So basically, the gender vote percentage change, and even the overall all voter percentage change was all driven by one area, the interior..

I believe that Mario Canseco`s commentary on this latest result was very misleading..And also, the BC Liberal support is very strong in West Vancouver and Richmond, that skews the numbers too...

The New Westminster burger poll has the ndp winning too,and the sign battle, the NDP are way ahead in the sign battle, the only place where the BC Liberals are winning in signs is on public corners, not individual residents..
_______

The B.C. NDP is winning the election sign war according to more than 150 reports from readers of which party has the most election signs on their block.
Last week, The Vancouver Sun began asking readers to report online which party has the most election signs up in their neighbourhood, to get a better sense of who's winning the campaign where it really matters: on the doorstep, with individual voters.
Of the 154 reports received as of Friday morning, 109 say NDP orange is the most dominant colour on their street.
Thirty-one say the B.C. Liberals have the most signs in their neighbourhood, nine say Green, three Conservative and two Independent/Other.

________
And as you can see, Adrian Dix has a commanding lead in the burger poll

Adrian Dix..........411

Christy Clark......144

Jane Sterk..... .....120

John Cummins.....41

Undecided/independent...246







Hot off the Grill!

THE “BUN-OFFICIAL” PROVINCIAL ELECTION POLLS ARE NOW ON AT BURGER HEAVEN!
We are completely unbiased as we invite Eaters (Voters) to pick their favourite Candidate Burgers!
144 The Christy Clark Burger

The Christy Clark Burger

Liberal Party

 

246 The (B)-UN Decided / Independant Burger.

The (B)-UN Decided / Independant Burger.

Undecided / Independant

 

+ view bio
411 The Adrian Dix Burger

The Adrian Dix Burger

NDP Party

+ view bio
41 The John Cummins Burger

The John Cummins Burger

Conservative Party

+ view bio
120 The Jane Sterk Burger

The Jane Sterk Burger

Green Party


http://www.burgerheaven.ca/burger-poll/
_____________
UPDATED 6:10 pm...May 3rd

Ipsos Reid has confirmed my analysis, the NDP lead by 20% points on Vancouver island....48% to 28%

NDP are leading in Metro Vancouver with 47%  to 39% for the BC Liberals.. Ipsos Reid has the NDP leading by 9% points in the interior....41% to 32%

Even more alarming for Christy Clark, Kyle Braid states there is STILL a 20% point gender gap, meaning the NDP have a staggering 20% percentage point lead among female voters.....Meaning those smart females voters still despise Christy Crash Clark!

Over all, Ipsos Reid has the NDP at 45% percent support to the BC Liberals 35% percentage point, that is exactly what this number cruncher stated this morning.."I personally believe the NDP are at 45% percent of support"

The gender gap, NDP have a 20% percentage point lead among female voters, that gap didn`t develop during the writ period, it didn`t develop over the last three months, that gap has been lingering for the better part of 18 months, meaning very early in Christy Clark`s role as premier designate females voters found her distasteful, fake, smirky, flirty, Christy`s I`m really smart professor glasses, whether it`s her nuances, her gait, whatever female voters have keyed in on came early in Clark`s term, it`s still here, ten days to go until E day and that 20% percentage point gender gap is still rearing its head.

That gap is permanent, Clark has thrown everything at the electorate, including the kitchen sink.

Check out the Global link below, Kyle Braid states to the Global viewing audience that the 20% point gender gap continues unabated.



http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6102



http://globalnews.ca/video/535049/top-story-may-3


Hope I have put your worries to bed..




Don`t let the media spin your mind..







The Straight Goods



Eyes Wide Open

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

You are brilliant Grant! Thanks

Ray Blessin said...

One "lead pipe cinch" I haven't heard yet is that the "premier" will lose Vancouver Point Grey.

Ray Blessin
Kamloops

Bill said...

Great job Grant.

You really investigate, analyze and tell like it truly is.

Thanks for all your hard work and posts.

Grant G said...

Thanks Bill...Appreciate the compliment, you too anon 5:50 pm..

Sometimes I feel the need to debunk the spin.

Our media is weak, the corporates lay out bread crumbs and the pundits eat em up, not sure but, I believe gullibility is a requirement for a media accreditation card.


Cheers

Anonymous said...

Here in Saanich North and the Islands which is a targeted riding for the Green Party it is getting pretty ugly. They are riding the coat tails of Elizabeth May to the max. Voters are confused and think that she is running the provincial Greens and that party is happy to capitalize on it.
They have robo-called locals into thinking they are in second place and have a chance.
Their biggest problem is that their candidate is weak and comes across as a opportunist and arrogant.
I'm really sick about Lizzie May's unwavering support for this non-candidate. She has us all believing that she should know better but doesn't.

Kreditanstalt said...

Sometimes it seems the only purpose of this blog is merely to replace the "Liberal" wing of The Governing Party with the "NDP" one.

Not a lot would change. Only the beneficiaries of the new party would differ...and we in the tax herd would be paying the NDP clients instead of the Liberal ones...

Grant G said...

Well Kreditanstalt, if that is your belief, so be it.


Adrian Dix welcomes your vote, if nothing changes (in your opinion), vote orange.

Good Day

Anonymous said...

Speaking from Alberta but recently from the southern Interior of BC. When I noticed the 20 point swing I wanted to know what happened between April 26th poll and the latest poll that would cause this. There have been many Government contracts and jobs promised for the Southern Interior. Last week while she was in that area Clark claimed that Dix was going to cancel all or most of these contracts. Stockwell Day is on her team. He is very well liked in the Southern Interior, mainly because of the Constituency office staff he had. The saying was
if you had a problem with any level of Government take it to Stock's office they would help you. If he also said what Clark was saying many people would believe him. I know how upset they would be. The polling happened at this time before people could think about whether it was actually true or not and before Dix had a chance to respond. Hence the 20 point swing.I really found your analysis very interesting.
I appreciate the fact that you share your investigative and analytical skills with us all.
Betty