The curse of Asia, LNG prosperity fantasy, it amazes me that so-called educated people are so stupid, sure enough many people aren`t blessed with critical thought processes but one doesn`t have to be smart to remember the not so-recent past.
At one-time North America was the electronic manufacturing capital of the world then Japan entered the market and things changed, bit by bit Corporations left the US of A and moved to cheaper labour markets, first Mexico, then Korea now China with their labour laws and zero environmental standards took over almost all electronic manufacturing, now they produce everything from flashlights to Starbucks coffee cups, everything is made in China, this domination has led a race to the bottom, electronic goods built so cheaply that even small repair businesses in the west have had to close shop, TV repairs obsolete, video repair obsolete, parts for repair are almost as expensive as a brand new replacement, in other words, throw away technology when it fails...
Vaughn Palmer has written another article on the need to rush into the building of LNG terminals, his third in short order, Vaughn is stressing the importance of rushing in before the window of opportunity closes....Sorry Vaughn, the window was never even opened, the Chinese merely fogged up the glass with hot air dreams.
Vaughn talks about how Australia is way ahead of us in LNG exporting, they too are expanding operations to satiate the Asian market, Russia too, and Vaughn Palmer is correct when he talks about a north American glut of natural gas, with new hydro-fracking shale gas is available in quantity everywhere, thus the North American price has plummeted to prices not seen in a decade, current prices EnCana gas and other producers in Canada make zero money on extracting it, the Province too, $3:00 per unit is the rock-bottom price for making money on this finite resource....right now the price is $2;40
I have studied the LNG market, I also studied the Chinese technique of tip-toeing into a market and in a few short years they dominate it, right now Super tanking business is in the tank, vessels are losing money, the Chinese have bought up most of the super tankers and are buying 80 more new vessels, they`re single handedly taking over the shipping game, phony subsidies from the regime in Bejiing create the illusion of profit when none exists....Even Sinopec and Petro-China are losing $billions subsidizing their domestic driver`s gasoline and diesel, nothing is as it seems in China.
"China’s plan for 80 super tankers worries owners
Beijing’s goal to transport half its oil imports on its own ships brings huge problems for foreign fleets
Keith Wallis in Boao, Hainan Island
07 November 2011
Plans by mainland ship owners to order up to 80 super tankers would be disastrous for foreign ship owners who would likely see charter rates plunge and vessels left idle, a senior shipping industry figure warned.
Torben Skaanild, secretary general of the Baltic and International Maritime Council (Bimco), said if all 80 ships were ordered “it would kill the tanker market for years - it would be a catastrophe”.
Skaanild was speaking on the sidelines of the World Shipping (China) summit at Boao on Hainan Island on Friday about renewed speculation that China Ocean Shipping (Cosco) and China Shipping Development as well as other mainland owners intended to embark on an ordering frenzy for new tankers. This was to ensure mainland ship owners met Beijing’s target that 50 per cent of China’s oil imports should be carried on its own ships by 2015.
Figures from China’s customs bureau show the mainland imported 130 million tonnes of crude oil in the first half of this year, equivalent to 434 super tanker shipments, and up 7 per cent year on year.
Moves to acquire a further 80 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) would more than double the existing combined fleet of China’s four largest ship owners, who together control 56 super tankers each of about 300,000 deadweight tonnes.
Based on existing orders, China Shipping Development plans to add a further three VLCCs to its fleet by 2013 and Nanjing Tanker Corporation, part of Sinotrans and the China Shipping Company, will take delivery of a further 10 large tankers by the end of next year. They are among 30 super tankers on order to Chinese ship owners.
Captain Wei Jiafu, Cosco chairman, confirmed that mainland ship owners would acquire a further 80 VLCCs over the next four years.
Explaining Cosco’s strategy, he said it was likely to form shipping joint ventures with mainland oil companies such as China National Petroleum (PetroChina), China Petrochemical (Sinopec) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). These joint ventures were likely to order new tonnage.
Skaanild said some independent owners were worried about the impact on the crude oil tanker market if China went through with its tanker-owning target. Bimco, which had 900 owners as members who controlled 66 per cent of global merchant ship tonnage, believed in free competition, he said, “but we have to express our concern”.
With ship owners facing the worst crisis for years as too many vessels chase fewer cargoes, Skaanild said some owners would not survive, so there would be plenty of ships to buy. Bimco’s position was that owners should not be building new ships.
Peter Sand, Bimco’s shipping analyst, said the VLCC market was in dire straits. “Last year, a modern VLCC earned US$37,929 per day, while year-to-date 2011 earnings are down 55 per cent at US$17,157 per day,” he said - an amount that barely covered operating costs.
I can`t help but laugh, the British Columbia government is drinking the Asian bubble tea, BC Liberals have sold Vaughn Palmer the juice too, BC Liberals are spouting the line that they will receive 4 to 5 times the North American price from Asian buyers....Now that`s funny, really it is.
Vaughn Palmer in his latest article also talks about the massive reserves of shale gas China itself has, it`s reported that China possess the largest supplies in the world, 5 times as much shale gas as North America, and it`s true...
"According to the US Energy Information Administration, China holds the largest reserves of shale gas in the world, enough to supply China for more than 300 years. There’s no current commercial production of shale gas in China, but several companies have exploratory projects underway, including Sinopec, PetroChina, Royal Dutch Shell, BP and Chevron.
An official from CNPC commented that the compant has found shale gas in around 20 locations, with each able to produce over 10,000 cubic meters of gas per day. Reuters reported that Shell has found shale gas in China, a development that could cap imports in a market natural gas producers are hoping will drive demand. Shell has observes good primary production from its two vertical well. Chevron, which experienced a dry well in its first well has now found encouraging results in its second well.
China is poised to become the world’s largest producer of shale gas,"
Huge Potential for Shale Gas in China | Derrick Petroleum Services
So here`s the deal or should I say, here`s the Chinese game, Australia is ramping up LNG export production, Qatar is Ramping up LNG export facilities, Russia is in the game too and let`s don`t forget the USA, everybody ramping up in a big rush to service Asia`s growing needs....
So what happens?...Everybody is chasing these enormous future profits and big LNG price from China, really, think about it, China has more gas than anyone else in the world, enough for 300 years yet these north American idiots think China is going to open up their wallets and pay a giant premium from us, now that`s even funnier...
China has everyone right where they want em, chasing a fantasy, once LNG ramps up around the world China will be in a position to set the price, peg one country against another, in other words with that much LNG available domestically China merely has to look at their own reserves and the price will crash!...LNG exporters will be selling it at a loss, all that fracking pollution for peanuts...Where have we seen this play before.
And there is more, much more, let`s talk dirty tar sand oil...Currently the Tar sands use enough natural gas each day to heat 10 million homes, just imagine if the price of this gas was...
4 to 5 times the North American price, this LNG fantasy price the BC Government is drooling over...Well, what would that do to the price of extracting dirty tar sand oil from Alberta?...It would drive the price through the roof, right now the only reason the tar sands can be mined cheap is the low price of natural gas and free water and free land for 1000`s of miles of poison lakes.
China will have all the exporters cutting each others throat for the business, the price will go low and stay low, for China doesn`t need LNG from anyone, they have more than anyone, they need oil, cheap oil and that means cheap natural gas...
Only fools and their money think they can out fox the Chinese, they have done this to almost every industry and the BC Liberal Government and Canada is falling for it hook, line and sinker, those fools and their money will soon part.
There is one more issue with China not extracting their shale gas at this time, fracking requires billions and billions of gallons of water, China has over 300 million people now without fresh clean drinking water, they are also having severe droughts and most of their rivers have been poisoned, mind you the Chinese don`t care about poisoning their people but China is moving slow on fracking, from what I have read China will be dedicating some of its new nuclear facilities to power desalination plants from which China can turn vast amounts of salt water into fracking water...
CHINA The Government: drinking water for 32 million farmers, but ten times more are left without - Asia News
CHINA For the Chinese, pollution and the environment top list of problems - Asia News
You can read Vaughn Palmer`s latest splash here, not much in it but hyperbole and Palmer`s subtle messaging, too bad Vaughn doesn`t know what he`s talking about.
The bottom line is this, with China holding the largest shale gas reserves in the world any thought of BC having China over a barrel and reliant on our natural gas is a joke....
Lastly, BC...if we had 3 LNG terminals humming away BC would deplete all our gas in 3 decades, China has 300 years worth of gas, China`s population is 50 times that of Canada, yet they have enough gas to supply their population for 300 years, how silly and sad that BC wants to exhaust our finite supplies for a short fantasy sugar rush.
China and Asia have taken over the electronics manufacturing, we can`t compete with their slave labour, same thing with shoes, clothes, housewares, food products, China also leads the world in intellectual property theft, human rights abuses, environmental crimes, counterfeit goods, cyber attacks, China is not investing in Canada they are buying it, whole operations, free trade zones, their own coal mine, their own workers, their own Chinese standards in Canada, a foreign country operating in Canada as if they own it, maybe they do...
My advice to the Province is build 1 LNG terminal and proceed slowly after that, I also suggest that CSIS maintain their diligence and watch the Federal Conservatives very closely.
And if Christy Clark or any Canadian politician thinks they can outsmart or wall China in well....
Whatever their smoking must be some good shit, perhaps that might be a better fiscal investment than playing reindeer games with Bejiing..
Updated here (October 3/2012), this story was written on February 8th/2012, and today October 4th/2012 the experts have come around, actually the experts might have just plagiarized my this story, all of these BC economic advisors are now looking like fools, Christy Clark is really looking the fool....
Vaughn Palmer can explain it to you, in fact Vaughn Palmer might as well just put a link to my story(the above story) rather than waste written words, for there is nothing new, the scenario Vaughn talks about was already presented above and discussed below at The Straight Goods, on February 8th..
Here is Vaughn Palmer`s input
And now we can ad Rafe Mair`s take......
Enjoy the reads, I mean the original read, the one above.
The Straight Goods
Cheers Eyes Wide Open