By 2035, electric vehicles could make up 35% of the road transport market, and two-thirds by 2050, when it could displace 25m barrels of oil per day.
Under such a scenario, coal and oil demand could peak in 2020, while the growth in gas demand could be curtailed.
The country’s annual LNG purchases last year fell for the first time since 2009 as its atomic fleet began restarting and as electricity consumption dropped to the lowest since 1998 amid a shrinking population and more energy efficiency. A decline in Japan LNG imports may add to a global glut as new projects start in Australia in the U.S. and prices for the fuel delivered to Northeast Asia slump to the lowest in at least five years.
“LNG imports will certainly decline this year as reactors are brought back online,” Junzo Tamamizu, the managing partner of Clavis Energy Partners LLC, a Tokyo-based consulting and advisory firm, said by phone. The nation’s increased use of solar power will also continue to reduce LNG consumption for power generation, Tamamizu said.
Japan’s LNG demand is forecast to fall by about 30 percent by 2030 to 62 million tons from its peak in 2014, according to a government projection