About Me-email is... grant.go@aol.com

My photo
garden bay, west coast, Canada
persistent digging,never say never

Tuesday, April 4, 2017

Christy Clark's LNG Sham Turns To Pixie Dust--2017 B.C. Election Edition



Written by Grant G
It's time for a B.C. LNG update...what's going on with LNG in British Columbia....The answer is nothing but meaningless staged photo-ops and gobbly goop press releases churned out by Christy Clark's 220 member gang of public affairs propagandists...Christy Clark is still trying to sell a promise of untold riches deriving from technologies of the past....The riches from LNG will never come to B.C....even if a LNG plant is built the riches won't accrue..
Before I get started on B.C.,,,this is where the future is going, renewable power, solar power, wind power, geothermal power.....LNG, the big fraud will not be the promised bridge fuel, as of today, the LNG industry is mired in a 15 year glut of supply....With massive gas discoveries everywhere..
________
"James Leaton, head of research at Carbon Tracker, added: “There are a number of low-carbon technologies about to achieve critical mass decades before some companies expect.”....The cost of solar has fallen 85% in seven years, and the report finds panels could supply 23% of global power generation by 2040 and 29% by 2050, entirely phasing coal out and leaving natural gas with just a 1% share.
By 2035, electric vehicles could make up 35% of the road transport market, and two-thirds by 2050, when it could displace 25m barrels of oil per day.
Under such a scenario, coal and oil demand could peak in 2020, while the growth in gas demand could be curtailed.
_______________

In Israel..( The recent discovery of some of the world's largest off-shore gas fields has given Israel decades of energy independence and paved the way for it to become a natural gas exporter. One field, Tamar, began production in 2013, and the even larger Leviathan field is expected to come online in late 2019 

in Egypt......( industry analysts expect Zohr — which has been described as a “supergiant” gasfield off the coast of Egypt containing an estimated 30tn cubic feet of gas — to be the biggest hydrocarbons project approved in 2016. It is the largest gasfield ever discovered in the Mediterranean. Wood Mackenzie, an energy consultancy, said in a report this year that the development of Zohr, now being fast-tracked by Eni, the Italian energy group, would cost an estimated $14bn, and once natural gas started flowing, it was likely to prove “transformational” for the Egyptian market. Zohr is welcome news for a country which last year changed from being a gas exporter to a gas importer. Eni believes Zohr will start production in 2017 and reach 2.6bn cubic feet of gas per day by 2019. https://www.ft.com/content/62dbd322-bff6-11e6-9bca-2b93a6856354  )
in Iran.....(longtime ally of Iran....India Oil Corp is investing huge dollars into Iran's massive gas fields for development    http://www.livemint.com/Industry/oL88G2x4hXmCGQFvmw7zyI/ONGC-submits-revised-plan-for-Farzad-B-gas-project-in-Iran.html Iran has the second most gas in the world, 15 fold more than Canada's gas reserves...)

Iran's proven gas reserves

33,600,000,000,000

Canada's proven gas reserves  
1,754,000,000,000
in Qatar ......(Australia's emerging leadership of the global LNG market may turn out to be short-lived after Qatar reasserted its ability to regain the top spot.
Qatar has surprised the market with plans to lift its self-imposed moratorium on further development of its huge North gas field, paving the way for the expansion of what some experts say are the world's lowest cost new supplies.
The announcement on Monday in Doha by Qatar Petroleum chief executive Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi points to a tougher task ahead for Australian-listed players such as Woodside Petroleum and Oil Search which have ambitions to expand their own LNG production.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said the lifting of a 12-year ban on new projects at the offshore North Field shows Qatar intends to grow its market share, which has been eroded as other regions – such as Australia and the US – added capacity.


"But it is also a threat to other developers of new capacity worldwide, as Qatar can add new capacity at a lower cost than anybody else," said research director for global LNG, Giles Farrer.


In Australia 
Australia has seven operating LNG developments and three more under construction. Other projects are also being considered.
Existing projects
  • The North West Shelf Venture began shipping cargoes in 1989. The project has since grown to include five production units (or trains). It now produces up to 16.3 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG.
  • Darwin LNG began production in 2006. This one-train project produces up to 3.7mtpa.
  • Pluto started production in April 2012. It has one 4.3mtpa production train.
  • Queensland Curtis LNG began production in December 2014. It has two producing LNG trains, each with a capacity of 4.25mtpa.
  • Gladstone LNG began production from its first train in September 2015.  Train 2 expected to be ready for start-up by the end of the year with first LNG in the second quarter of 2016.
  • Australia Pacific LNG began production from its first train in December 2015.
  • Gorgon shipped its first cargo in March 2016

Australia has three more large LNG plants coming online this year and next...
Under construction
Three large Australian LNG schemes are currently at various stages of development. These draw from gas fields off the north coast of Western Australia (Prelude, Wheatstone and Ichthys).
In total, Australia has almost $80 billion worth of LNG projects under construction.

____________________

in the USA.... 5 LNG projects are under construction.. Cheniere is selling LNG, they just permitted it's 7th LNG train at Sabine...Port Charles LNG is far along in construction...There is so much new lng supply coming online, 90 million tonnes per annum(MTPA) from the US....and you might ask, how come projects went forward in the USA and not Canada?...Simple answer is...The sites of those USA LNG plants were not greenfield operations, ...those industrial sites were/are the locations of LNG import terminals...a decade plus ago the USA thought it would soon need to import LNG...that triggered a build up of regasification(LNG import facilities) terminals but then the fracking revolution opened up, that rendered those import/regas facilities useless, except for conversion to LNG liquefaction plants...American LNG builds are using existing pipeline grids and utilizing the LNG regasification infrastructure...Therefore saving American brownfield LNG builds approximately 50% over the cost of Canadian greenfield proposals..

We don't need to worry about LNG in BC....nothing is going to be built, even Woodfibre LNG is in doubt...
There was another phony BC Liberal election ploy, eer, I mean a Postmedia BC Liberal fake-out announcement last week...Sarita Bay LNG proposal...It was a photo-op of the absurd, of all the BC LNG proposals(20 plus) Sarita Bay proposal for Vancouver Island's wild westcoast is the most uneconomical of all...
Read it..no timeline, no estimate, no pipeline, no gas, and most importantly ..no buyers....Petronas, Shell Canada, AltaGas, Chevron, they all backed away, those projects deemed uneconomical...Steelhead's Sarita Bay proposal requires a pipeline across Salish sea and Van Island...no banker will sanction it, Steelhead will not find longterm buyer at a profit point...and, Steelhead has no money...Geoff Plant is on the board of directors, remember him...He sent the BC Rail theft investigation off the rails..
Need more...Australia's LNG disaster...They will never see any tax revenue from their record LNG exports..Big Energy have amassed $300 billion dollars in future tax deferments..
Need more...Another Westcoast LNG project scrapped...
Consortium cites low prices and a 15 year glut of LNG...
Need more...Chevron calls an end to LNG megaprojects
Need more....in 2016.. 263 million tonnes (MTPA) of LNG was sold...There was 340 million tonnes of capacity available...77 million tonnes of excess LNG capacity in 2016
2017....there is 35 million tonnes more of LNG capacity coming online..bringing total LNG available to 375 million tonnes...
By 2020 you can add another 90 million tonnes of capacity coming online from USA/Russia/Australia...bringing available capacity to 465 million tonnes...The world will only need maybe, 300 million tonnes in 2020...The glut will last until 2030..


Bloomberg has slightly different forecast numbers....

_________

US plants will help boost global production capacity to 407 million tons a year by 2020, compared with projected demand of about 274 million tons, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

________

465 million tonnes of lng capacity available by 2020 when a mere 300 million tonnes are required.....and then there is this...besides that capacity coming online by 2020 ..this...

______________

 While the number of liquefaction proposals has increased significantly in recent years, totalling 879 MTPA in January 2017,

http://www.igu.org/sites/default/files/103419-World_IGU_Report_no%20crops.pdf

____________

879 million tonnes per annum of new capacity has been proposed around the world...if they all built out, ...yearly capacity rises to over 1300 million tonnes of capacity..when even the most over zealous estimate is ......maybe 500 million tonnes per annum required by 2030...there is near 900 million tonnes per annum in new project proposals and 465 million tonnes of capacity by 2020 from projects already under construction....!


Need more...it's a buyers market and there is now a consortium of the three largest buyers of LNG...They, the buyers are demanding new terms, flexibility to resell LNG cargoes, and an end to destination take or pay longterm contracts..

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/english/news/industry/17689-lng-buying-alliance-korea-china-and-japan-go-ahead-formation-lng-buyer-alliance
You can't store LNG cheaply, it costs an arm and a leg to store LNG...There is a glut of LNG...Everyone will be cutting deals...Qatar is signing longterm contracts for $5 dollars per MBTUs...that is less than half the price of BC LNG's break even point.
Petronas isn't building anything in BC for a decade or more, probably never...not a single word from Petronas on BC or PNW LNG since last September..
Shell Canada LNG has cancelled their Prince Rupert project..
Aurora LNG proposal for Ridley island....They halted their EA assessment.
Aurora LNG..which is owned by Nexen..Nexen is owned by CNOOC...
CNOOC is in economic trouble..CNOOC posted its first ever year over year money loss, the first time since launching as a company in 2001...
"China’s biggest offshore explorer, Cnooc Ltd., may report Thursday its first annual loss since its Hong Kong trading debut in 2001. Net income is forecast to have swung to a 3.22 billion yuan loss, according to the mean estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg."
not only that..TransCanada is building a pipeline extension and has signed a 15 year deal to ship BC/Alb nat-gas EAST...not to the westcoast but east to Toronto..
Meaning 1.5 billion cft of gas per day is gone, not available for conversion to LNG...
Need more...the big news, Japan, the world's largest consumer of LNG...their need of LNG is falling fast...
_________
The country’s annual LNG purchases last year fell for the first time since 2009 as its atomic fleet began restarting and as electricity consumption dropped to the lowest since 1998 amid a shrinking population and more energy efficiency. A decline in Japan LNG imports may add to a global glut as new projects start in Australia in the U.S. and prices for the fuel delivered to Northeast Asia slump to the lowest in at least five years.
“LNG imports will certainly decline this year as reactors are brought back online,” Junzo Tamamizu, the managing partner of Clavis Energy Partners LLC, a Tokyo-based consulting and advisory firm, said by phone. The nation’s increased use of solar power will also continue to reduce LNG consumption for power generation, Tamamizu said.
Japan’s LNG demand is forecast to fall by about 30 percent by 2030 to 62 million tons from its peak in 2014, according to a government projection


_______________

There is so much excess LNG at present. ....

Big energy needs India and other large populations to fully adopt LNG as a reliable power source, and they will, but only if the price is cheap...and therein lies the rub...India and Pakistan can't absorb the heady prices big energy foisted on Japan in their time of need..

So, to increase LNG demand from heavily populated countries like India and Pakistan you have to price low...$5 dollars per MBTUs or less... that puts Canadian LNG on ice...
Christy Clark started yammering about LNG in 2011..when she became leader of the BC Liberal Gang...

in 2012/2013 Christy Clark went into her delusional mode, she promised over 100,000 lng jobs...she promised a $100 billion dollar prosperity fund..an elimination of BC's debt, the elimination of BC's sales tax(which brings in $6 billion dollars per year at present to government)..she promised LNG would fund schools, hospital, ..lng revenues would pay off BC's crown debt(BC Hydro currently has a $22 billion dollar and growing debt)...
All those advertised jobs, all the money....BC was going to be paved with untold riches and all we had to do was elect Christy Clark....There is not an LNG shovel in the ground--April 4th/2017 and not a single LNG shovel in the ground...

to be clear...Qatar..Iran...Russian pipeline gas...all the massive gas discoveries....there is another 100 million tonnes per annum/equivalent energy coming from these three countries that weren't even counted above....a glut til 2030 and if renewables stay on their current projections...there may be enough gas/lng now...
The market is saturated until 2030(minimum) and if renewables keep projecting upwards...the LNG industry is dead to BC..
Christy Clark sold snake oil to BC voters in 2013 to get elected... 4 years later BC's provincial debt under Christy Clark went from $39 billion in 2013 dollars to $70 billion in 2017(not counting BC Hydro's growing debt $22 billion, not counting BC Ferries $2 billion dollar debt, not counting the $3.7 billion and growing Port Mann bridge debt, not counting Pavco's growing debt(BC Place)..not counting a potential $3.5 billion dollar Massey bridge debt.
Christy Clark's campaign bus in 2013 was adorned with the logo...Debt Free B.C....it should have read Debt Spree BC..
Christy Clark lied her face-off about LNG...She was a bad politician under Gordon Campbell and under her reign the BC Liberals have turned into the most corrupt government in Canada....A pay to play, bribes for free pollution...Christy Clark sold out generations of BCers...and come May 9th/2017....We BC voters are going to send Christy Clark packing...She should be jailed...in all my years, I have never known a politician who lied with such ease, cheated and didn't care, abused children through reckless policy, treated teachers like stray dogs, seniors brushed off, shortages of everything under these BC Liberal's watch...they took demographic charts and shredded em, disabled paid poverty, the weakest among us..Christy Clark abused everyone except those who paid bribes to her and the BC Liberal gang....

Here is a 2 hour blogcast featuring yours truly and @canadianglen

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/canadianglen/2017/01/12/lng--a-bridge-fuel-too-far-with-grant-g#

http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2017/01/lng-bridge-fuel-too-far.html

And below is a little story about Christy Clark

Selling Cynical...A Portrait of Christy Clark



The Straight Goods
Cheers Eyes Wide Open


9 comments:

North Van's Grumps said...

Will Justin Trudeau send Christy Clark off to the UK to be the High Commissioner?

Grant G said...

Trudeau should send Christy Clark to Japan.....There Clark can explain to the Japanese people why she promised BCers $trillions of dollars from Japanese pockets and purses..

When was the last time Japanese made a human(?) sacrifice to Mount Fuji.....ah, the volcano would spit her out...Christy Clark has no purity within

Chuckstraight said...

But Pam Martin Tweeted that there would be a huge pile of money in the Prosperity Fund.

Danneau said...

thoughtful and exhaustive. Great work.
Now, can we superimpose this on the press gallery's steno work for broader circulation?

Scotty on Denman said...

There's no bigger indictment (so far, pre-forensic investigation of the books) of the prancing majorette's regime than its presumption that BC voters actually bought the bill of goods it tried to sell us on LNG: to wit Site-C.

She'll re-indict every time she crows from a muddy stump on the war-torn banks of the Peace River.

As she directs a beholden congregation of temporary workers to Hymn No. 1 of the BC Liberal Prayer Book, BC citizens will be turning to the back pages of their burgeoning hydro bills.

All together, now: Onward Christy's soldiers/ Marching as to war/ The double-cross of Jesus/ Going on as before.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Japanese-company-halts-project-to-develop-Cook-Inlet-LNG-417539833.html

sd said...

Great work once again Grant!

John's Aghast said...

Yes Sir! You rock!
I never did discover how to convert billion cubic feet to million tons, or is it tonnes. You'd think by now someone would use more common units, such as 'Olympic sized swimming pools' or 'football fields'. Good thing Chrispy hasn't discovered all those zeroes actually mean something.

Anonymous said...

https://gangstersout.blogspot.ca/2017/04/gordon-clark-spins-for-peter-leask.html