HA HA.....Well, can anyone say Wolf in Sheep`s clothing, I can remember the time before our last federal election, Stephen Harper stated that Canada was in great shape,no recession for Canada, no deficit, the "best and the brightest" forecasters were all in agreement and....
Pinch me please I need to be woken up...Fast forward to the present, this sunday our Giant Canadian debt clock will surpass half a trillion dollars, Yikes! And lets go back to may of this year,Gordon Campbell and Colin Hansen claimed..."The best and the brightest" BC economists and forecasters stated that BC will only have a tiny deficit, negligible job losses and we are almost immune from the recession....Pinch me again I need to be woken up...Fast forward to June and all of a sudden we had a 5 $ billion dollar deficit,job losses galore and deficits for at least 4 more years.
And my friends these were the "Best and the brightest" predictors, Alberta 7 billion $ debt..Ontario a 28 $ billion dollar deficit...Canada a 70 $ billion dollar deficit...BC a 5 $ billion dollar deficit, boy am I glad the "best and the brightest" didn`t predict a major deficit!
But what I wanted to talk about was the Conference Board of Canada. First off,who the hell are these people, who are the board members? Well, from looking at the names and who they work for one thing is for sure, they`re not economists,scholars, professors, what they are is a who`s who of corporate mouth pieces, including Paul taylor,ex ICBC CEO and now Naikun wind power CEO..bankers,representatives from De Beers jewelry, a whole bunch of people who have never seen hard times, a bunch of people who don`t have to tighten their belts, and why these people,this group are even given the time of day is beyond me, because I have looked at what they are predicting and I have come to the conclusion that they don`t know what their talking about!
Lets breakdown their predictions, lets stick with their BC predictions. "Recoveries in manufacturing" first off, is BC even known as a manufacturing province? I don`t think so...Anyways, Electronic Arts EA --Has announced massive lay-offs in it`s Burnaby operation, Ebay laid off 700 workers in Burnaby, are those lay-offs in manufacturing, sort of, do we make cars or appliances in BC, clothes, are any of the products you buy made in BC? ...They are also predicting a recovery in construction? In fact it seems to me that Global,Canwest, CTV,all of them have been pimping the market, and yet,unemployment in Canada and more importantly in the USA is still rising, unemployment is at a 30 year high, 10.2 %.. A jobless recovery, and my friends, those job losses aren`t coming back, China has the ability to make all the goods Americans once made and at a cheaper price and the banks and credit/loan companies are no longer lending money to Americans on false equity..And I read this article today at CNBC that I would like to share with you. ( http://www.cnbc.com/id/34018204) "Why housing won`t recover"
Here it what they are predicting for south of the border.. "Housing starts are expected to have a steep decline due to government assisted home buying programs ending" ...."unemployment to rise to 11% through 2010" ..."Foreclosures still at record levels"......"the economy and job market didn`t rebound as predicted"...."unemployment expected to be above 10% even after 2010"....."still a glut of homes on the market"....Not a rosy forecast for housing south of the border,this is the new normal,and as I said earlier these jobs aren`t coming back,there has been a permanent shift in north America, there won`t be a job recovery,the jobs will be created in China and stay in China and the reason for that is simple.
Wall Street is back baby!....Record profits, record bonuses, bonuses this year may exceed the record of 162 billion paid in 2007, you see folks, the crisis is over, the markets stabilized,the big money boyz are making huge cash again,despite record high unemployment in the USA,despite record foreclosures, despite bankrupt governments,bankrupt states,local governments,despite record debt wall street is doing fine, its a focking miracle, wall street is making money hand over fist,who woulda thunk that! (read about how wall street is laughing all the way to the bailed out banks here) http://www.cnbc.com/id/34014989
Now back to the "best and the brightest" at the Conference board of Canada....They say that "Forestry is going to recover in BC " Imagine that, Housing starts in the USA is expected to fall off a cliff with declines due to high unemployment, record foreclosures,and a massive glut on the market and interest payments expected to start to rise this year by 1 to 2 percent...Perhaps the CBoC forgot that we lost over 40 mills while a USA and BC housing boom was going on...Perhaps the CBOC failed to notice the latest mill closure in Kitimat......
So who the hell does the Conference Board of Canada and their cheerleaders think they`re conning? Because the "best and the brightest" say so,are they ever right,if they keep predicting a recovery in forestry one of these years they might have it right,sheesh.
Here is what West Fraser Timber said in their latest press release "We expect financial results to come under heavy pressure due to continued weak markets,uncertainty in pricing" and this "the high Canadian dollar will hamper any recovery"....and "high US unemployment along with additional foreclosures and high inventory"
And what does Catalyst have to say...."We expect heavy pressure due to continued weak markets,and the negative effect of an escalating Canadian dollar"
So I find it amusing that the Conference board of Canada is predicting a recovery in BC forestry when all the BC forest companies are predicting a brutal year,low US housing starts,high unemployment,high US household debt but just like the Fraser institute governments bring out these reports from "the best and the brightest" in this case the conference board of Canada and say HEY....This must be true,the recovery is here because a group of who`s who are saying so!
Well my friends, they are wrong, Grant G says,forestry will worsen in BC this year,more mills will close,more raw logs will leave the province, housing will pick-up a bit until the HST arrives then housing starts will fall off a cliff,manufacturing in BC will not increase, high tech industry will continue to erode,as for tourism and the olympic bump it will not happen.
And lastly, if the media,if government wants to parade reports around from the conference board of Canada they should at least have enough class to tell us how accurate they were in the past, here is what the Conference board of Canada said in July 2008....Report titled..
Canadian outlook economic forecast:summer 2008
executive summary--july 2008,source:The conference board of Canada,16 pages
This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Canadian outlook report,which presents the short-term national outlook.
- Data for the first quarter of 2008 was paradoxical in that growth in real gross domestic product(GDP) in the usa outperformed that in Canada.However,in terms of income,employment,and domestic demand growth,Canada remains in much better shape.
- A decline in exports,especially in the auto sector, will result in real GDP growth for Canada of only 1.7 percent this year, a full percentage point below the 2007 performance.Economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.7 per cent in 2009,helped by a better trade performance and still strong domestic demand.
- The general rise in commodity prices may be here to stay.Seemingly insatiable global demand for raw materials,coupled with a recovery in forestry product prices,should keep prices elevated and shore up resource revenues and private investment.
- Luckily for manufacturers,the loonie seems to have stopped riding the coattails of energy prices.The Canadian dollar is expected to remain relatively stable over 2008 and 2009,just shy of parity.
- Surprise,surprise...despite the dire projections in the latest round of federal and provincial budgets,government revenues are, once again, growing more strongly than expected.However,at the regional level,results will be lopsided in favour of resourced energy-rich provinces. (you can read this report at the Conference Board of Canada here) http://sso.conferenceboard.ca/documents.aspx?did=2660
Lets examine their accuracy, Ontario..30 billion $ deficit..BC..5 $ billion...Alberta..7 billion..Canada ...70 $ billion
Resource and energy rich provinces to do best....Hmmm...Did we? Government revenue?..Forestry recovery?...In fact if I had to grade the Conference board of Canada 2008 summer report I would give it a big fat F..
"The best and the brightest" are again predicting a forestry recovery, housing recovery,manufacturing recovery,oil prices to rise, and yet unemployment highs rage on,consumer debt is at an all time high, a disaster south of the border, all world growth has been a result of government debt spending which is now ending, a jobless recovery......But have no fear,Paul Taylor and the Conference Board of Canada state..."The recovery is on"
Don`t you all feel re-assured now"
The Straight Goods
Cheers-Eyes Wide Open