Written by Grant G
10 days until Trump starts pulling the levers of power and not so many more days after that MAGA will realize they've been deceived by the orange buffoon.
Trump has asked Congress to to put together an all encompassing single Bill to cover taxation, immigration and Energy.....A tough ask in a razor thin House of Representatives indeed.
Where to begin.....
IMMIGRANTION/DEPORTATION
"President-elect Donald Trump’s border czar Tom Homan has privately told Republican lawmakers to temper their expectations for the incoming administration’s initial deportation operation, citing limited resources, according to multiple sources involved in the conversations"
Behind the scenes lawmakers are being inundated with howls and complaints from farmers, ranchers, construction companies, fast food and restaurant operators and a myriad of other industries that a mass deportation will decimate the economy and raise prices on Americans from coast to coast...
These business owners who operated and profited for decades used undocumented labor, consequence free, meaning no penalties for hiring, at sub-standard wages illegal/undocumented immigrants and now these same Trump voters and business owners are asking for relief, relief for themselves from having to eliminate their labor force....
Seems these business owners never believed Trump would follow through with his mass deportations but now are concerned Trump just might do it...
Ahh...But the stories come out, stories being put out by Trump's handpicked Border Czar Tom Holman is a clear indication that the orange buffoon is coming to terms that the USA needs these workers...
So now Tom Holman is publicly saying that a mere 1.4 million undocumented immigrants who already have final immigration orders of removal will be targeted first.....And furthermore, Holman states that he'd need about a $trillion dollars to remove 8 million undocumented and to go full blast and deport 20 million he'd need $2 trillion dollars plus...
To further complicate matters are all those businesses that employ undocumented workers are telling, yelling to their local government representatives that their profits will fall and consumer prices will rise exponentially.....and with midterms a mere 2 years away, with the GOP holding a barebones majority with many in purple districts where republicans won with scant margins...48% to 52% range, dozens and dozens of GOP congresspersons who won albeit by slim margins....These congressperson are hearing their constituents howling already before the harm has been inflicted..
Big Tech/Elon Ketamine Musk has also put his thumb on the scale and H1B visas are not being restricted, or ended but increased by large margins to serve as the tech industries indentured employee base, and at substandard wages...
Trump has caved on the immigration issue already, before it's even begun..The Trump MAGA racist base are going to have a complete meltdown when they see first-hand that Trump blustered and boasted pre-election only to fold like a cheap suit..
Even IF Trump didn't fold on immigration the howling from all Americans would begin in earnest as staple food prices skyrocket.....All that before his doomed tariff scheme comes to fruition..
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TAXATION
The only tax provisions that are still on the table for Trump are....
1) Making permanent his 2018 tax bill that benefitted the millionaires and billionaires
2)Lowering the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%
3)No tax on tips election promise
That's it....His other taxation promises, "No tax on overtime and no tax on social security" are being punted to later in his term....as in never.
The only way Trump can pay for the lowering of corporate tax-rates and his permanent tax break for the wealthiest among us, and no tax on tips is with tariffs..
Tariffs of 25% on all Canadian, Mexican and Chinese imported products will raise the price of all consumer goods, including domestically produced items by on average 25%...
That will cause the angry Trump Americans to howl and scream.....
These Americans who won't be getting a tax cut will soon figure out that they are paying 25% more on everything so the wealthy and corporate sector get more riches, and as for no tax on tips....That sector will feel the wrath of the MAGA voter too.....
The Trump voter will attack tip earners as soon as they realize they will be paying 25% or more for everything so tip workers get a little bit more and the wealthiest get a lot more..
Once again, with midterms 2 years away......The GOP slim majority in Congress will be thinking more about self preservation than they will about obeying the demented orange asshole.
If Trump went full Nazi and deported millions of undocumented immigrants while simultaneously enacting 25% tariffs from China, Canada and Mexico you will see prices rise anywhere from 50% to 100%, on thousands of items....including energy.
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ENERGY
Trump wants energy reforms included in this big all encompassing Bill from Congress.
What does that mean?
I don't know for sure but I suspect that Trump is going to issue a demand of big oil producers to neuter Canada's oil exports to the USA and mandate that big oil produce enough oil to eliminate imports of Canadian oil and produce enough that the USA can be self sufficient and export gobs of oil to countries all over the world and become the kingpin of energy supply...Trump will also mandate in this Congressional Bill that the US opens up Anwar for oil production..
That may sound sweet to MAGA morons and TRUMP but that fictional pipe dream will be put to rest in a heartbeat....
Because of a few pesky facts......
Currently the USA imports 3.9 million barrels of Canadian oil per day....and, one only has to look at what companies are in Alberta tar fields to figure it out..
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According to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP), more than 906 US-based companies provide equipment, parts, and services for the development of Alberta's oil sands.
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But what about opening up and developing the Anwr nature reserve in Alaska?
Again, reality is gonna punch Trump in the nose....
1)According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), it would take at least 10 years to produce oil from the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) after the first lease sale:
2)Production: Fields typically take 3 to 4 years to reach peak production, maintain peak production for 3 to 4 years, and then decline
3)Infrastructure: It could take a few years to set up the necessary infrastructure for drilling.
4)Industry interest: The industry itself and most analysts say that companies are not eager to drill in ANWR
In other words....it would take a decade to produce any substantial amounts of ANWR oil..
And the cost would very prohibitive to energy producers...Meaning the cost of ANWR oil would be expensive compared to sources like Alberta...
There is one more notable stat when it comes to ANWR oil reserves....How much oil is there?
According to the experts there is approximately
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The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates that the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska contains between 4.3 and 11.8 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil:
Coastal Plain-The USGS estimates that the 1.57-million-acre Coastal Plain in the northern part of the Refuge contains 7.7 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil on federal lands. If Alaska Native lands and adjacent waters are included, the estimate increases to 10.4 billion barrels
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That sounds like a lot of oil....but is it? time for some simple math, math that perhaps even Trump and his MAGA morons can understand..
The USA imports from Canada 3.9 million barrels per day....Let's round it up to 4 million barrels a day for ease of calculations..
10 days of Canadian oil imports to the USA =40 million barrels
100 days of Canadian oil imports to the USA=400 million barrels
365 days of Canadian oil imports to the USA=1.46 billion barrels per year..
10 years of Canadian oil imports to the USA at current levels = 14.6 billion barrels of oil..
That's more than the recoverable oil in ANWR....and it would take near a decade to bring ANWR to fruition.
In other words, Trump talks a big game without having a clue as to the game parameters.
Furthermore..There is no supply shortage in the world right now, no supply shortage in the USA, for congress, and or the president mandate oil companies to produce more than is necessary from other domestic supplies the price to American consumers will rise exponentially.
Big energy make big money, shareholders demand big money and Trump has no flex over these behemoth companies...
And, in my opinion....If Trump succeeds in arm-bending big oil into shutting down Canadian oil over time....We, the Canadian Government must mandate that we cut off America's supply well in advance of any new American supplies coming online...
However, I don't believe Trump will succeed, for many reasons, he's a fucking braindead moron, the big corporations have big flex, big American oil companies have footprints and financial interests all around the world, in many countries....Big oil is not going to cut off a left or right arm of oil production in another country only to have to expend vast dollars to bring different domestic supply into the market..
And lastly....Trump is a lame duck, he'll probably die before his term ends, and he can't run again..
In other words....Trump is a lame duck president who hasn't a clue how the world energy market works..
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Lastly....The American people freaked out over egg prices rising during the Corporate Price Gouging Era...
The people who elected Trump want prices to drop...Not to rise
The people who elected Trump want brown people removed, not just talked about removing.
In other words....For Trump to actually make happen his immigration, deportation, taxation, tariff, and energy policies...
Maga will be begging for a return to the Biden years....And Trump, he's a lame duck.
My only fear of the USA is.....Trump gets so pissed off from not being able to accomplish anything that he promised and campaigned on he starts a war with Canada for spite...He'll need lackies high in the military to do that, along with a complicit Congress...
We're not there yet....
Trump is not called a lame duck for no reason..
The Straight Goods
Cheers Eyes Wide Open
