Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Petronas' Pacific Northwest LNG Proposal....The Real Story Minus Postmedia's Fake Narrative





Written by Grant G


Yesterday after Petronas divulged they were canceling their ill-fated LNG project Keith Baldrey started spinning like a top, spinning like a BC Liberal shill....

Keith Baldrey claimed the change in government caused Petronas to bail on their project...

CKNW/Global audio vault...listen to July 25th...just after 7:30 pm news(about 7:33 mark)

 

Then Postmedia's corporate/political shill Vaughn Palmer followed suit with a inaccurate anti NDP spinfest....


and later last night Postmedia's energy writer(Financial Post) and Husky Energy lobbyist Claudia Cattaneo wrote a brutal opinion piece blasting NDP and John Horgan for Petronas' decision to scrap a money losing proposition...



Time to set the record straight, no spin, just the facts on the ground.....

Petronas canceled their LNG proposal(2 years ago when BC Liberals were in power)..just like AltaGas gas, who had all the certificates and approvals to go forward.....Just like Shell Canada, who also had all the permits and approvals required(18 months ago when BC Liberals were in power and looked near certain to maintain power)...Just like Chevron's Kitimat LNG proposal..and Douglas Channel LNG proposal....

those projects all walked away, canceled or deferred to some mystery date in the future...all while the BC Liberals were in power, were the government of the day....

Woodfibre LNG proposal...despite Postmedia saying that Woodfibre LNG has made a FID(final investment decision)..they have not...there is a HOA agreement, nothing more ....


Woodfibre lng STILL has not secured any longterm buyers of LNG....there is no FID...the project in Howe Sound(Squamish) is virtually dead, on life-support, the odds of it going forward...? almost 0%..

The reason Petronas...Chevron...Shell Canada..Kitimat LNG...AltaGas all cancelled their fully permitted LNG proposals is because....

None of those companies could secure longterm buyers of LNG at a price-point that was profitable...

AltaGas cancelled their Kitimat LNG proposal in March of 2016...no buyers of gas..

http://www.vancouversun.com/altagas+calls+halt+project+kitimat/11743911/story.html

Shell Canada deferred their Prince Rupert LNG project in February 2016..

http://business.financialpost.com/commodities/energy/shell-puts-off-decision-on-lng-megaproject-in-b-c-for-another-year-as-it-grapples-with-plummeting-oil-prices-and-earnings/wcm/5aba6c22-526d-4fb2-982b-3bf513018147

Shell Canada cancelled their Prince Rupert project permanently in March 2017...2 months before our BC election(an election where BC Liberals were big time favorites to get reelected  

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/shell-ends-development-of-prince-rupert-lng-project-1.4020820

Quicksilver's lng proposal for Campbell River...They declared bankruptcy in March of 2015....project dead..

http://www.campbellrivermirror.com/news/quicksilver-bankruptcy-deals-blow-to-lng-terminal/

In August 2014....Apache Energy scrapped its Kitimat LNG proposal when their big American partner Chevron bailed on the proposed project..

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/kitimat-lng-project-in-jeopardy-after-apache-pulls-out-1.2725018

So, 2014...Apache and Chevron bailed on B.C......

In 2015 Quicksilver went belly up, ending Campbell River LNG proposal..

Shell Canada cancelled their Prince Rupert LNG proposal last year...

AltaGas shelved their Kitimat LNG proposal last year...

And now Michael Smyth..Keith Baldrey, Vaughn Palmer..Claudia Cattaneo..Les Leyne..all Postmedia shills are saying Petronas bailed because the NDP took power...What a bunch of sore losers you clowns are....

That my fellow BCers is the very bottom line, the economic viability isn't there....period..

Even in Alaska...Conoco Philips mothballed a small full-functional LNG export terminal(it was not profitable in this market)



Alaska Governor Walker ...and his predecessor before him have been, for years and years trying to get a LNG export industry up and running(North Slope Natural Gas)...Like B.C.,,,,Alaska's gas is quite some distance from the coast, the estimated cost for the pipeline network, port facilities and liquefaction terminal is a staggering $45 to $50 billion....a consortium of energy companies, with Exxon Mobile being the lead....those energy majors bailed on Alaska last year...citing not being economically viable as the reason for bailing....imagine that, big industry, bigtime resource exporting Alaska, run by Republicans...a state with oil exports and pipelines...and still big energy companies walked away....now, the Alaska government is so hellbent on exporting LNG are now attempting to do the project as a state financed project, a state-led LNG proposal...


Governor Walker and his quislings have made Asian LNG trade missions after more Asian LNG trade missions all to no avail....Alaska and Governor Walker have failed to find longterm buyers of LNG at a pricepoint that's profitable...

Keith Baldrey..Vaughn Palmer..Claudia Cattaneo, Postmedia and the BC Liberals are 100% wrong, they know they are, they know the NDP are not at fault for these fairy-tailed LNG projects dying on the vine.....Those are the facts....

Those above mentioned spineless spinners also say(to bolster their bullshit claims) .."USA and Canada started looking into LNG at the same time, US went forward, Canada didn't"....

Again...don't let the facts get in the way of your bullshit boys(and girls).....

British Columbia is classed as...."a greenfield proposal"....Where the USA was a "brownfield proposal" ....back in around the year 2000.(before the fraccing revolution) the USA was contemplating running out of conventional natural gas and becoming a LNG importer...so, big energy companies built, in anticipation of those LNG import needs built infrastructure..pipeline grids to distribute gas, they built regasification plants(where you warm up LNG and convert back to gas)....

What happened next...before the US had a need to employ the use of this infrastructure with imported LNG something happened, the fraccing revolution/secret got out....the USA suddenly found themselves awash in natural gas...the $10s of billion spent on infrastructure for regassing imported LNG was now obsolete before it even got used......

Obsolete regasification plants, located in American east coast ports...obsolete...ahh, except for converting those import facilities into export facilities, and that's exactly what they did...American LNG liquefaction builders saved anywhere from 30% to 60% over the cost of building from scratch, (also known as greenfield)....

Those are the facts.....complicating factors even more....Australia drank the LNG Koolaid too...Australia set out to be the world's largest LNG exporter...Qatar increased output to maintain their market share..Russia has increased LNG production..along with Malaysia, Iraq..Iran,..Africa, Papua New Guinea, ....with the fraccing revolution...almost every country in the world has domestic nat-gas...that includes China....

Further complicating matters with LNG is the price of renewable power...Solar power is almost as inexpensive as gas...Wind generated electrical power is now cheaper than natural gas based electricity..economies of scale see the cost of producing electricity with renewable as cheaper or even cheaper than natural gas/LNG....

Sorry Vaughn Palmer..Keith Baldrey, Claudia Cattaneo...Postmedia..David Keane(BCLNGA)..ICBA independent contractors/builders association......you fucking spindoctors are wrong, your coordinated anti-NDP spinfest is almost as pathetic as your bootlicking endorsements of Christy Clark and her BC Liberal gang(and your asswipe endorsement of Stephen Harper in Federal election 2015)...

______________________

There's more....Vaughn Palmer..Keith Baldrey..Postmedia....BC Liberals....it drives them crazy that one honest blogger beat those mentioned above like a drum...one man, one writer with little to no means outperformed Postmedia, called it accurately on LNG for years, year after year The Straight Goods produced the real story on LNG....Postmedia.....you lose, you lost to a single blogger..

______________ 

Before I finish up.....how did we get here....what made the greed monsters go for the LNG hook..

Japan...Japan was hit with a mega-thrust 9.0 earthquake and the following tsunami...the wave of water caused Fukushima nuclear plant to literally meltdown....Japan panicked(rightfully so)..

Japan as a precautionary measure shutdown their entire nuclear grid....now starved for power, LNG imports surged...so did the price of LNG..soared to record high prices...Big energy bent Japan over and rammed them up their arse...

and the vultures pounced...Big energy saw dollar signs, Japan was the road to untold riches...then the worm turned...Japan elected Shinzo Abe, he ran on a pro-nuclear platform, after winning office, the nuclear restart was underway...Japan now not requiring as much LNG..the price crashed....the vultures I mentioned...LNG liquefaction projects were proposed everywhere, some went forward, ..Brownfield builds progressed, Greenfield builds did not....with all the new LNG capacity, coupled with Japan slashing its LNG use...

The world found itself awash in LNG...a massive glut, a glut now forecast to go out to at least 2030..

That my friends is the short version of events....Petronas, Woodfibre..Shell Canada...AltaGas...Kitimat LNG..Douglas Channel LNG...Quicksilver LNG..Steelhead LNG..Aurora LNG.....

Those above mentioned LNG export project proposals all have one thing in common....

None of those companies could secure any longterm LNG buyers at a pricepoint that made economic sense(cents) ...Postmedia knows that...so does Baldrey..Palmer..Cattaneo....and Rich Coleman....

Lastly...Petronas actually cancelled the project 2 years ago...I wrote several LNG articles stating just that...

I wrote in January/2016(19 months ago) ..

It Looks Almost Certain That Petronas Will Defer Their British Columbia Prince Rupert LNG Project(PNW LNG) Well Into The Future



I wrote in March/2016.....this

Petronas is Out, Pacific NorthWest LNG In Prince Rupert Is Dead, Done, Kaput..PERIOD


and I wrote in August 2015 ....a Straight Goods special report titled...

British Columbia LNG Industry, The Last Gas(P)....A Straight Goods Special





As for Grant G......Still the world's most accurate LNG forecaster.....and deliverer of....





The Straight Goods

Cheers Eyes Wide Open 

   






12 comments:

istvan said...

Well Grant,I always agreed with your take on this. Take care friend...

JasonS said...

Glad we have at least a few voices in the wilderness telling the truth to power.
How did our 4th estate get so compromised. It shouldn't be on the shoulders of a handful of bloggers to be our CNN and Washington Post to the governments co-opted Fox News north Postmedia and the Neo-Liberal's Global farm team. If one dollar of my taxes goes to Posmedia in the form of a bailout the government should be forced to match it and distribute it between The Tyee, Norm, yourself Merv etc. We are woefully under served by our "mainstream" media.

Anonymous said...

Don't forget Mr. Jas Johal. He is also spinning like a top on this.

These folks have no shame.

John's Aghast said...

I too was aware in 2012, not that I have any education in this matter. Just a sixth sense that told me Chrispy was telling lies.

same thing will happen to Kinder Morgan. No fossil fueler will/can afford to use their service.

And 'Flip' Wilson? No one ever needed him, especially at $600+ /day. Wonder what will become of him, and Jud. Back to sheep farming?

Anonymous said...

200 people on the PR BC dept.and 7 park rangers.
mission accomplished,they won 2013 on it

sd said...

Water boy Smith is at it today too, baiting the idiots who buy his crap.

Rob said...

Check out Harvey O.
He is delusional!

Grant G said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

And the benefactors on the LNG file up to 2017

gordon wilson?

woodfiber ipp 1.7 million a year premium plus private hydro contract(BC taxpayer losing 1 million dollars a year on that one over rack rates??

BCLibs 2013 election win and the benefactors of the 10 billion dollars added in debt since 2013?

Anonymous said...


…the B.C. government announced a special LNG tax at seven per cent of net income in 2014. Later it cut that figure to 3.5 per cent after capital costs were recovered…
(giving it away again, paying their friends inside. Note the year.)
…Canada's biggest natural gas producers says "government dithering" …
(who's running this province and country at the time? Not the NDP)
… all levels of government were trying to squeeze more money out of them…
(hasn't stopped, still squeezing citizen tax payers)
…citing lower prices in recent years in export markets in Asia. But Rose said a "more effective, streamlined approval process," would have seen Petronas make a final investment decision on the project three years ago, when prices were much higher…
(again, who's in government at the time. And we don't need less regulations, they're too lax as it is, one only has to look around to see the destruction with no recourse for recovery. Mt. Polley comes to mind. I know, Mt. P isn't natural gas, but it is about commodities.)
Glad the project is gone. Don't need to poison our land any more than it is and has been. Fracking which is required for retrieving ng is proving to be deadly in many ways and for what? Dollars to go offshore.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/after-petronas-pulls-the-plug-where-will-the-gas-go-1.4224651
And Harvey, really? Smith, Baldrey, Palmer, Fletcher. Time for you all to get off your band wagons.

Winston Smith said...

Here is a revealing article on how the media can get it so so wrong , Cheers
https://in-sights.ca/2017/07/20/when-the-call-screener-makes-life-difficult-replay/

Anonymous said...

Thanks Grant, your blogging on LNG was light years ahead of MSM. Actually all of your political commentary!

Hey what do you think of all those Vision Vancouver types being stuffed into the new NDP government? Apparently Justin Trudeau's minions are happy about this.

Can't anybody read the tea leaves?

People are getting screwed by political elites and are going populist.

On the left that means Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn i.e. real progressive politics, not that Tony Blair/Bill Clinton/Hillary Clinton third way pretend-to-care bullshit.

---off-the-radar