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garden bay, west coast, Canada
persistent digging,never say never

Monday, September 14, 2015

AltaCorp Capital Shines Up Their Crystal Ball and Conjures Up An LNG Spinfest, A British Columbia LNG Fantasy, Separating Fact From Fiction



Written by Grant G

Christy Clark`s golden LNG winged unicorns take flight and soar to the heavens...

Oh to laugh, chuckle and bust my gut......Remember that damning report on the chances of any LNG terminals being built in British Columbia posted by the Financial post last week, an article that confirmed my posting...British Columbia`s LNG Industry..The Last Gas(P)....

 http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2015/08/british-columbia-and-lngs-last-gaspa.html

And then a two-part special posted in the Vancouver Sun that reported findings from an internal Petronas audit, a report citing serious damning evidence on Petronas`s safety violations and lack of regulation....Followed by a Vaughn Palmer article where Vaughn takes swipes at BC`s gasman Rich Coleman...

We knew what was destined to happen next...Christy Clark and company ordered up another LNG spindoctored LNG article to counter the bad press and keep those paved with gold LNG dreams alive...

Well, It`s the first Monday following the release of those damning articles and shazzaam....The spindoctered drool appeared right on cue, posted in The Province newspaper....

The report, it had four authors, it wasn`t a report by an energy company, it wasn`t a report by any LNG company that is proposing a project in British Columbia....This rosy, hip hip hooray article/report was written by Altacorp Capital....A money lender....

And boy oh by, the spin is delicious, juicy, and personally speaking... comical!....

Let me break down the Christy Clark ordered gobbily goop "report" piece by piece....Please, try not to laugh to hard..

First off....

In this Financial Post damning, accurate article last week....Petronas`s proposed LNG terminal is costed at an estimated $11. 4 billion dollars(And yes, the majority of that money to be spent overseas)....Cut n pasted from the accurate FP posting last week..
  
http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/window-of-opportunity-for-new-lng-projects-is-gone-because-of-supply-glut-consultancy-says?__lsa=2d00-d796


 "Malaysia’ state-owned Petronas and its partners gave a conditional approval to their $11-billion Pacific NorthWest LNG on Lelu Island near Prince Rupert, but the consortium faces stiff opposition from some First Nations. It has also not secured an environmental certificate from the Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency"

And in the Vancouver Sun two-part special on Petronas...They also say Petronas`s proposed Prince Rupert project is $11.4 Billion...

 http://www.vancouversun.com/Energy+giant+Petronas+faced+catastrophic+safety+issues/11354054/story.html?__lsa=e0f8-8603

In the latest spinfest posted in The Province newspaper....A special report written by an Alberta banking firm..(Altacorp Capital)

http://www.theprovince.com/business/four+projects+will+built+order+expect+analysts/11362917/story.html

In that latest spinfest AltaCorp Capital has bumped Petronas proposed Prince Rupert project back up to $36 billion dollars....!!!!..And I quote...

"That timeline, and AltaCorp`s prediction, Douglas channel would be the first LNG project to be built in the province-Leapfrogging Petronas larger $36 billion Pacific Northwest project"

So here we go again, Petronas`s proposed project jumps from $11.2 billion..$11.4 billion..to $36 billion to $46 billion Canadian and now back to $36 billion....It`s enough to make one dizzy, these spindoctors at AltaCorp Capital, in their Financial Post special report article(reposted in today`s The Province newspaper) must have forgot that Petronas`s proposed estimate was just last week in the Financial Post article was a $11.4 billion dollar price tag....So, AltaCorp Capital, in their just released special report have made a $25 billion dollar error...And we are just getting started...Next I breakdown the spin line by line...

In that AltaCorp Capital report...

Calgary-A new report "dissents" from bearish predictions that no LNG terminals will be built on Canada`s West Coast, and instead says four natural gas export facilities will be greenlighted in the coming years.
The report by AltaCorp Capital, released Monday, predicts that AltaGas LTD. Shell Canada LTD, Exxon Moibile Corp and Petronas, will build massive facilities to super cool natural gas for export from B.C. Coast in the coming years, although not in the order that many industry observers have come to expect.

"while this may appear to be hopelessly optimistic, we would argue that the smaller Douglas Channel LNG project is on track for a positive(final investment decision) by the end of 2015, AltaCorp Capital analysts said,  

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Did you read that?...Appear...We would argue....hopelessly optimistic....A report by AltaCorp Capital...Talk about weasel words...This is a lender, not an energy company, it`s hooey and it gets much worse..

________


 Executives at AltaGas, which is leading the $500-million Douglas Channel proposal, have previously defied predictions that no liquefied natural gas terminals would be built in B.C. and recently said the company’s facility would be complete by 2018.

That timeline, and AltaCorp.’s predictions, would mean that Douglas Channel would be the first LNG project to be built in the province – leapfrogging Petronas’ larger $36-billion Pacific Northwest LNG project.

________

Now...AltaGas`s proposal, remember AltaGas...They were a major sponsor of Christy Clark`s failed Burrard bridge yoga-fest...

AltaGas`s proposal($500 million) is not for a big LNG on-land terminal, thus the price, AltaGas`s proposal is for a floating LNG vessels(all built overseas, little to no construction work, they merely need a land compressor, secure moorings and access to a natural gas pipeline, thus the small price-tag..

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Altagas`s LTD LNG proposal

"The LNG project will be developed in two phases. The first phase will consist of floating liquefaction facilities with the capacity to receive 110 Mmcfd of gas.
In the second phase of the LNG project, the joint venture plans to increase the gas export capacity of the project up to 1 Bcfd.
The parties involved in the LNG project are: AltaGas, Idemitsu Kosan of Japan, Exmar of Belgium, and French company EDF Trading."

 http://www.lngworldnews.com/altagas-files-for-lng-export-permit-with-neb/

____

AltaCorp`s second major faux pas...AltaGas LTD is NOT PROPOSING A TERMINAL..They are proposing a floating facility that will be built entirely overseas... Then the AltaCorp Capital spin deflector gets really thick.

________



AltaCorp. now expects Pacific Northwest(Petronas), “the project that looked like it would proceed first,” to be built sometime after Douglas Channel and after Shell Canada Ltd.’s massive LNG Canada project, which would be built at a cost widely estimated between $25 billion and $40 billion.

The report cites a “preponderance of evidencesuggesting that Shell will decide in the first half of next year(2016) to build its massive project. Neither Shell nor AltaGas responded to requests for comment on construction timelines. Exxon’s Canadian subsidiary, Imperial Oil Ltd., did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Do you see the deflector spin...EXPECTS......TO BE BUILT AFTER.......A PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE...SUGGESTING...
Shell and ALTAGAS failed to respond when asked for a comment...WOW..Talk about spin, and it gets worse... 
__________


AltaCorp Capital analyst Dana Benner, one of the four authors of the report, said in an interview that the collapse in crude oil prices has weakened the demand for labour in Western Canada, and companies could use the slowdown as an opportunity.
“If oil stays at these levels, in fact, it will probably get weaker yet, in which case more people will free up, So it is actually a perfect environment for not only one but maybe a couple of these projects to go because of the talent pool,” Benner said.
______
 Did you Read that?, that AltaCorp Capital author(?)...He`s saying the low oil price is perfect because now there will suddenly be lots of cheap labour available for LNG construction..Didn`t Christy Clark tell British Columbia that these LNG jobs will be very high-waged family supporting jobs..Now apparently the companies will have gobs of cheap labour..????...The spin keeps coming..

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Petronas, Malaysia’s state-owned oil producer, may need to reposition a bridge and other parts of its project near Prince Rupert to gain the support of a local aboriginal group before proceeding with its Pacific Northwest project.


However, the AltaCorp report noted that an “unconditional positive FID” for the project is still expected at some point next year(2016), most likely after Shell and AltaGas.

______

Didn`t Mike De Jong say Petronas would have shovels in the ground by September 2015?

I believe he did...

______


In the News:

'The Malaysian Insider' -Business report states: The US$36 billion (RM137.5 billion) liquefied natural gas ("LNG") export terminal project in Canada is expected to commence this September(2015), said British Columbia (BC) Finance Minister, Michael de Jong.

Victor N. Bryant, CEO/President comments: "It is a great pleasure to share this news with you from Malaysia, where B.C. Finance Minister-Michael de Jong has just met with the Malaysian Prime Minister- Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak."

In a press conference in Putrajaya, Malaysia today, Michael de Jong states: "The construction will begin soon….this fall. All other prerequisites have been dealt with." Excerpts from the Malaysian Insider/Business http://ow.ly/Q9hoG The Finance Minister thanked the Malaysian Prime Minister for his leadership and vision in positioning Malaysia to play a lead role in the international development of the emerging LNG industry in British Columbia, Canada.
 
 https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/petronas-us-36-billion-pnw-010234334.html

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Ok...So the Petronas decision is now being pushed off to sometime in 2016????

I gotta tell you readers, this AltaCorp Capital spindoctored Christy Clark ordered Golden Unicorn LNG special is a real funny hoot, that is if you are an idiot or a turnip who just fell off the truck..!

And now the last bit of spin...

___________

The fourth LNG project to be built, the report predicts, is Exxon Mobil’s West Coast Canada LNG project, which has “quietly” been making steady progress and recently finalized plans for an onshore terminal.

“The company plans to finish engineering studies in 2017, with FID now anticipated for late 2017 or 2018,” the report notes.

____________

AltaCorp Capital, the money lender, not an energy company but the money lending outfit is predicting?..Boy oh boy.., that sure instills confidence, those economists are never wrong...

Exxon Mobile Corp...Engineering studies to last until LATE 2017...???..With a FINAL INVESTMENT DECISION to come After Our Provincial 2017 election...?

So, in a nutshell...AltaCorp Capital, a money lender, is predicting, SUGGESTING..AFTER A PREPONDERANCE OF EVIDENCE that Petronas will delay a FID until sometime in 2016? ...And, they gave no timeline for Shell Canada, AltaCorp Capital has no statements or comments from any of those above mentioned energy companies...AltaCorp Capital is saying that Exxon Mobile needs another three years to do Engineering studies(?), and that a final investment decision will come after our 2017 provincial election....AltaCorp Capital is also saying that the low oil prices are good and energy companies will now have gobs of suddenly cheaper construction and skilled trades...??

Hilarious...The Financial Post last week had a damning report by an energy analysis stating that Petronas`s project proposal in Prince Rupert was a $11.4 billion dollar project, and that with the current and growing LNG glut that unlikely any LNG terminals are going to get built in British Columbia for at least a decade, and here a week later another article posted in The Financial Post(and The Province newspaper), not by an energy company or energy analysis but by money lenders at AltaCorp Capital..An article where Petronas`s Prince Rupert proposal has jumped up in value by $25 billion....? $11.2 billion?....$11.4 billion?.....$36 billion?......$46 billion Canadian dollars?....Whatever!

Christy Clark said during our 2013 provincial election that B.C. would have two LNG operations up and running by 2015...and she said that we would have upwards of ten LNG operations up and running by 2020....

Now we have AltaCorp Capital in their oh-so special report, calling AltaGas`s floating offshore vessel proposal a "terminal" it isn`t, a terminal I mean....the price tag, a reported $500 million, Petronas`s terminal($11.2 billion or $95 billion or whatever) Shell`s LNG terminal($25 billion to $40 billion)...AltaGas`s terminal(?) $500 million?.....Not mentioned by AltaCorp`s illustrious authors(?), the floating vessels will be built entirely overseas...

Have a good read of this latest Christy Clark ordered spinfest(to counter all the latest bad LNG news)Link directly below

 http://www.theprovince.com/business/four+projects+will+built+order+expect+analysts/11362917/story.html

Try not laugh too hard....

Also...I reported several months ago that in the current and midterm LNG export scene that land-based behemoth LNG terminals are over, and the new operators would be flocking to mobile, versatile floating facilities...And though they would allow BC natural gas to get exported, these floating facilities would be built entirely overseas, construction crews would be minimal, not thousands of construction workers but maybe a hundred short term workers to build a compressor station and secure moorings for the foreign built floating facilities...In this post..



 http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2015/05/the-beginning-of-end-of-behemoth-land.html

Do you see that picture...AltaGas`s Douglas Channel proposal would look like this...All that would be constructed in BC would be secure moorings, a land compressor and connection to the vessel(Kitimat already has an existing LNG pipeline and natural gas capacity to supply this  110 Mmcfd of gas per year proposal(tiny in export capacity)...So there would be no need to even build a pipeline, a barebones proposal..Barebones as to creating BC construction jobs, very short term, minimal investment in B.C.

And, you can always read this, the most accurate data on BC`s grim LNG export future..

 http://powellriverpersuader.blogspot.ca/2015/08/british-columbia-and-lngs-last-gaspa.html

This is why I so despise our mainstream media, when speculative fluff passes as a newsworthy article, it strains credibility... 

Well folks, I needed a good laugh today.....I can thank the bovine scatologists that reside at AltaCorp Capital for the gut busting laughter..

Cmon AltaCorp Capital boys...If you are going to spin, at least put a little effort into it!.

As for those high-soaring winged golden unicorns......They will take flight as soon as..


PIGS FLY!



The Straight Goods

Cheers Eyes Wide Open

    

2 comments:

Grant G said...

My apologies for the delayed editing...

Cheers

John's aghast said...

Leaves you gasping, doesn't it. I wonder how many 'Olympic Sized Swimming Pools' (is this the new standard of measurement - OSSP?) 110mcfd is? Is this the same as 3.1mcmd (3.1 million cubic meters per day). After all, we are supposed to be dealing in metric. Is this measured before or after liquefaction?
Its a wonder Chrispy doesn't declare in cubic inches just to inflate the numbers - 110mcfd = 1.9bcid! Not too unreasonable - my truck comes in cubic inches!